Publications

Abstract We study candidates' position adjustments in response to information about voters' preferences. Repositioning allows candidates to move closer to the median voter, but it incurs financial and electoral costs. In a subgame-perfect equilibrium, candidates diverge from the center ex ante if the costs of adjustment are sufficiently large. This allows them to increase the chances of a costless victory when the information is strongly in their favor. Our theory highlights a dynamic of moderation during the campaign stage in competitive elections, as well as a prominent role for minor adjustments made preemptively by the favored candidate. JEL Classification: C72, D72, D82 Model. We enrich the Downs-Hotelling framework by introducing an information shock, creating a two-stage game. The shock reveals the location of the median voter. This captures the idea that voters' aggregate preferences fluctuate over time and that their current leanings are disclosed during the electoral cam-This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non-commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made.
Keywords Re-positioning, Spatial voting, Imperfect information, Flip-flop
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Abstract Recent data from US States reveal a negative correlation between environmental degradation and environmental concerns, which in turn seem inversely linked to fertility rates. We introduce a dynamic model to examine explicitly this interplay and explain the observed positive correlation between the carbon intensity of the economy and fertility in data from US States. The key ingredient of our model is that preferences for the number of children and environmental concerns may be complementary or substitutable. Interesting results occur when environmental concerns and the number of children are substitutable. At a stable steady state, a stronger effect of environmental concerns on household preferences reduces the number of children, as stressed by recent literature. The dynamics show that lower fertility rates are associated with lower environmental impacts from economic production, such as reduced carbon intensity.
Keywords Carbon intensity Fertility Environmental concerns Environmental degradation Transitional dynamics
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Abstract Recent data from US states reveal a negative correlation between environmental degradation and environmental concerns, which in turn seem inversely linked to fertility rates. We introduce a dynamic model to examine explicitly this interplay and explain the observed positive correlation between the carbon intensity of the economy and fertility in data from US states. The key ingredient of our model is that preferences for the number of children and environmental concerns may be complementary or substitutable. Interesting results occur when environmental concerns and the number of children are substitutable. At a stable steady state, a stronger effect of environmental concerns on household preferences reduces the number of children, as stressed by recent literature. The dynamics show that lower fertility rates are associated with lower environmental impacts from economic production, such as reduced carbon intensity.
Keywords Transitional dynamics, Environmental degradation, Environmental concerns, Fertility, Carbon intensity
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Abstract Présentation éditoriale du numéro spécial consacré à Bertrand Lemennicier
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Abstract Who makes it to the top? We use the leading socio-economic survey in Germany, supplemented by extensive data on the rich, to answer this question. We identify the key predictors for belonging to the top 1 percent of income, wealth, and both distributions jointly. Although we consider many, only a few traits matter: Entrepreneurship and self-employment in conjunction with a sizable inheritance of company assets is the most important covariate combination across all rich groups. Our data suggest that all top 1 percent groups, but especially the joint top 1 percent, are predominantly populated by intergenerational entrepreneurs.
Keywords Top wealth, Top income, Rich-group classification modeling, Predictions, Intergenerational transfers
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Abstract How to allocate limited resources among children is a crucial household decision, especially in developing countries where it can have strong implications for children and family survival. We provide the first large scale study linking variations in parental income in the early life of children to subsequent child health and parental investments across siblings in developing countries, using data from multiple waves of the Demographic and Health Surveys spanning 54 countries. Variations in the world prices of locally suitable crops are used as measures of local income. We find that children born in periods of higher income receive better health investments and display persistently higher levels of health than their siblings. Children whose siblings were born during favourable income periods receive less investment and exhibit worse health. These findings are consistent with a model of sibling rivalry where parents invest in the child with the highest returns and complementarities in investment across periods. We also provide evidence that other investments (education, parental time use and child labour) react to sibling rivalry. Our results suggest that income shocks can enlarge disparities within households.
Keywords Intra-household allocations, Parental investments, Income, Health
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Abstract Using the text from matrimonial ads, we assemble a novel data set to describe the evolution of partner preferences over time and space. Analyzing ads published in Canada, France and India between 1950 and 1995, we show that stated preferences for economic criteria have fallen sharply in favor of personality traits in the two Western countries while they remain the most prevalent in India. Using ads covering various regions from the US and Canada in 1995, we show that personality traits are consistently more demanded than economic criteria. We provide evidence that these results are unlikely to be driven by the composition effects over time, role of parents or changing social norms. We show that the changes over time are particularly strong for women and accompany narrowing gender gaps in labor force participation in Western countries. We discuss the implications for understanding the evolution of assortative mating over time.
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Abstract This paper asks whether macroeconomic policy can affect fertility and education by documenting a slow-down of long-term improvements in these two outcomes in the wake of a major protectionist shock that shielded low-skilled individuals from the adverse consequences of the first wave of globalisation. We build a novel dataset for 19th-century France where, following decades of rising grain imports at low prices, high tariffs on cereal were introduced in 1892, shifting relative prices in favour of agriculture and away from industry. We exploit regional data that allow us to measure differences in the intensity of the protectionist shock and find that the tariff halted the long-term increase in schooling and slowed-down the decline in fertility that were already well underway.
Keywords Fertility, Education, Unified growth theory, Protectionism, France
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Abstract Des mutuelles de santé ont été mises en place dans de nombreux pays d’Afrique subsaharienne pour améliorer le recours aux soins et lutter contre les inégalités sociales de santé. C’est le cas au Sénégal, dans des zones rurales où les habitants ne disposaient d’aucune couverture santé. Plusieurs études questionnent leur rôle dans la perspective d’atteindre la couverture sanitaire universelle.
Keywords Couverture santé, Assurance maladie, Accès aux soins, Senegal, Afrique subsaharienne
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Abstract Public health problems are complex; investigating them requires a framework that both accounts for multiple interactions among individuals and their intermediate and broader environment and also integrates equity concerns. Incorporating internal and external influences at the individual level, the health capability profile (HCP)’s 15 different health capabilities address this need. Using a systematic three-step deductive content analysis process, we examine hypothetical case studies representing leading causes of death in the USA (eg, heart disease, cancer and diabetes) as well as pressing public health issues such as COVID-19, alcohol use disorder, stigma and discrimination, intimate partner violence and firearm violence. After reviewing the profile (1), each case study is analysed through the framework of the HCP and developed into a flow diagram, through which we identify shortfalls between the observed and optimal levels of each health capability, as well as detrimental or enabling interactions among capabilities (2). We then determine factors and interventions that could help improve overall health capability (3). The HCP harnesses the multitude of unique individual profiles, and through aggregation and analysis, reveals common vulnerabilities (eg, discriminatory social norms and non-evidence-based information), and strengths. It recommends cross-cutting structural policy and programme reforms for institutions, schools, community resources and for individuals to develop a positive set of norms, knowledge, goals, attitudes and habits to chart the path towards health and well-being for all.
Keywords SOCIAL SCIENCES, PUBLIC HEALTH, Health inequalities, HEALTH PROMOTION
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Abstract Résumé L’article rend hommage à la manière dont Bertrand Lemennicier concevait le raisonnement économique. Après un rappel des différents sophismes pouvant être présents dans l’argumentaire des économistes, l’article met en perspective les avantages et les risques d’une telle approche.
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Abstract This article derives the (asymptotic) variances and covariances – and hence standard errors – of quantile means and quantile shares in terms of explicit formulas that are distribution-free and easily computable. The article then develops a toolbox of quantile-based disaggregative inequality measures, based on the means and shares, which allow for detailed inferential analysis of income distributions in a straightforward unified framework. The analytical formulas are applied to Canadian Census public-use microdata files on workers’ earnings for 2000 and 2005. The results highlight the statistical significance of how upper-earnings levels have advanced beyond middle earnings, how much the share of mid-range earnings has eroded over even a five-year period, and how decile mean growth rates for women were everywhere higher than for men – except at the top decile, where the opposite phenomenon was highly significant.
Keywords Quantile share, Quantile means, Income shares, Distribution-free inference, Disaggregative measures
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Abstract A large proportion of adults in the developing world remain without access to formal banking. We assess the effectiveness of a network‐based information delivery strategy in fostering interest to learn about and subscribe to mobile money services in rural and peri‐urban communities in Peru. We posit that lack of information about mobile money technology is a barrier to financial inclusion, which can be mitigated through social proximity. We designed a randomized controlled trial where workshops were led by individuals personally known to participants (local ambassadors–treatment) or by external agents (control). We find that attendance and BiM subscription rates were twice as high in the local ambassadors' group, especially among low‐trust individuals.
Keywords Financial inclusion, Network-based information experiment, Asymmetric information, Trust
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Abstract Narrow bracketers who are myopic in specific decisions would fail to consider preexisting risks in investment and neglect hedging opportunities. Growing evidence has demonstrated the relevance of narrow bracketing. We take a step further in empirical investigation and study individual heterogeneity in narrow bracketing. Specifically, we use a lab experiment in investment and hedging that elicits subjects' preferences on rich occasions to uncover the individual degree of narrow bracketing without imposing distributional assumptions. Combining prospect theory and narrow bracketing can explain our findings: Subjects who invest more also insure more, and subjects insure significantly less in the loss domain than in the gain domain. More importantly, we show that the distribution of the individual degree of narrow bracketing is skewed at two extremes, yet with a substantial share of people in the middle who partially suffer from narrow bracketing. Neglecting this aspect, we would overestimate the severity of narrow bracketing and misinterpret its relation with individual characteristics.
Keywords Hedging, Narrow bracketing, Prospect theory, Subject heterogeneity
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Abstract In this article, we obtain an extension of the Ekeland variational principle in quasi-uniform spaces. Since the Ekeland variational principle is a type of perturbed optimization problem, the perturbations do not need to satisfy the triangle property to obtain results. We also give some equivalent results of our main results. Moreover, we present a new version of the Ekeland variational principle and its equivalent results, in the setting of quasi-gage spaces. Finally, we establish the Ekeland variational principle in a (metric) modular space as an application of our results.
Keywords Ekeland&#039, s variational principle, Quasi-uniform space, Quasi-gauge space, Modular space, Fixed point
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Abstract Experts argue that the adoption of healthy sanitation practices, such as hand washing and latrine use, requires focusing on the entire community rather than individual behaviors. According to this view, one limiting factor in ending open defecation lies in the capacity of the community to collectively act toward this goal. Each member of a community bears the private cost of contributing by washing hands and using latrines, but the benefits through better health outcomes depend on whether other community members also opt out of open defecation. We rely on a community-based intervention carried out in Mali as an illustrative example (Community-Led Total Sanitation or CLTS). Using a series of experiments conducted in 121 villages and designed to measure the willingness of community members to contribute to a local public good, we investigate the process of participation in a collective action problem setting. Our focus is on two types of activities: (1) gathering of community members to encourage public discussion of the collective action problem, and (2) facilitation by a community champion of the adoption of individual actions to attain the socially preferred outcome. In games, communication helps raise public good provision, and both open discussion and facilitated ones have the same impact. When a community member facilitates a discussion after an open discussion session, public good contributions increase, but there are no gains from opening up the discussion after a facilitated session. Community members who choose to contribute in the no-communication treatment are not better facilitators than those who choose not to contribute.
Keywords Public good provision, Behavioral experiments, Community-based development, Sanitation
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Abstract The different options people select from a set of non-rival alternatives are compared in terms of singularity. A criterion for ranking these choices on the basis of the number of other choices from which they differ is introduced and characterized. An axiomatic characterization of the ranking of choice profiles based on the aggregation of the singularities of the chosen alternatives is also provided.
Keywords Freedom of choice, Orderings, Choice profiles
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Abstract http://www.tei-c.org/ns/1.0">The di¤erent options people select from a set of non-rival alternatives are compared in terms of singularity. A criterion for ranking these choices on the basis of the number of other choices from which they di¤er is introduced and characterized. An axiomatic characterization of the ranking of choice pro…les based on the aggregation of the singularities of the chosen alternatives is also provided. JEL Classi…cation : D63 Keywords : Diversity, Freedom of choice, Orderings, Choice pro…les. "The prosp ects of freedom in the contem p orary world m ay well lie in the recognition of the plurality of our identities, where p ersonal identity must b e understo o d as an extension of one's own choice of b eing som eone or doing som ething" (A. K. Sen (2006))
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Abstract This paper examines an endogenous growth model that allows us to consider the dynamics and sustainability of debt, pollution, and growth. Debt evolves according to the financing adaptation and mitigation efforts and to the damages caused by pollution. Three types of features are important for our analysis: the technology through the negative effect of pollution on TFP; the fiscal policy; the initial level of pollution and debt with respect to capital. Indeed, if the initial level of pollution is too high, the economy is relegated to an endogenous tipping zone where pollution perpetually increases relatively to capital. If the effect of pollution on TFP is too strong, the economy cannot converge to a stable and sustainable long-run balanced growth path. If the income tax rates are high enough, we can converge to a stable balanced growth path with low pollution and high debt relative to capital. This sustainable equilibrium can even be characterized by higher growth and welfare. This last result underlines the role that tax policy can play in reconciling debt and environmental sustainability.
Keywords Environmental damage, Pollution, Fiscal policy, Public debt, Sustainability
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Abstract Higher trade policy uncertainty has recessionary effects on U.S. states. To demonstrate this, we first build a novel empirical measure of regional trade policy uncertainty based on the volatility of national import tariffs at the sectoral level and on the sectoral composition of imports in U.S. states. We find that a state that is more exposed to an unanticipated increase in tariff volatility suffers from a larger drop in real GDP and employment than the average U.S. state. We then build a two-region open-economy model and find that the precautionary saving behavior is the main driver of the recession, although this effect is reinforced by high exposure to import tariffs. The feedback effect resulting from trade connections with the Foreign country primarily influences the persistence of these dynamics. ✩ The National Bureau of Economic Research has provided financial sponsorship to make this article open access and had no influence or involvement over the review or approval of any content. ✩✩ This article is part of a special issue entitled: ISOM 2024 published in Journal of International Economics. ★ We are grateful to the organizers of the 2024 NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics (ISoM), Jordi Galí and Kenneth West as well as our discussants, Andrea Raffo and Joseph Steinberg, the Editor Linda Tesar and the participants for their insightful comments. The comments and remarks provided
Keywords Regional effects, Precautionary behavior, Tariffs, Uncertainty shocks
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