Publications

Abstract Le marginalisme autrichien a pénétré en Ukraine dès la fin du xixe et le début du xxe siècle à travers la théorie de l’utilité développée par l’économiste et mathématicien Yevgen Slutsky. Sa Théorie de l’utilité marginale montre comment les idées autrichiennes majeures y furent reçues et reprises. Slutsky abordait l’économie en scientifique avec une réception critique de la théorie subjective de la valeur élaborée par Carl Menger. Slutsky développa son propre concept de valeur, qu’il présenta dans sa Critique du concept de valeur. Les auteurs se basent sur un matériau inédit conservé dans des archives à Kiev. Slutsky débattit les positions d’Eugen Böhm-Bawerk, il « objectiva » la fonction d’utilité et il souligna le rôle du comportement de consommation au sein du marché. Ses découvertes exercèrent une grande influence : les « équations de Slutsky », l’« effet Slutsky-Yule » et le « théorème de Slutsky » en témoignent.
Keywords Grenznutztheorie, Slutsky Yevgen, Ukraine, Slutsky Yevgen, Economic theory, Marginal utility, Ukraine, Slutsky Yevgen, Théorie économique, Utilité marginale, Ukraine
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Abstract Voici un cinquième article publié dans le cadre de notre forum « Covid-19 : causes, impacts et stratégies », qui vise à ouvrir les colonnes de Futuribles à divers experts pour évoquer, encore « à chaud », différents aspects, d’ordre économique, social, sanitaire, alimentaire, écologique…, de la crise du Covid-19. Gilbert Cette y montre qu’en dépit des difficultés inhérentes à cette crise sanitaire et aux conséquences économiques qui vont s’ensuivre, il existe aussi une opportunité à saisir dans le domaine du travail. En effet, le confinement et la limitation des déplacements ont permis une large extension du télétravail, qui pourrait perdurer par la suite et permettre, à terme, de relancer la productivité économique, qui semblait en phase d’épuisement depuis plusieurs décennies. S.D.
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Abstract L'objectif du chantier de la restructuration des branches est de remplacer un paysage conventionnel morcelé par des branches professionnelles plus cohérentes. Ce processus soulève des difficultés. La réponse à ces difficultés peut résider dans l'articulation renouvelée du dialogue social dans les branches et les entreprises. Un moratoire de quelques années peut être utile à un stade de la restructuration. Explications et analyse de Jacques Barthélémy, avocat et Ancien professeur associé à la faculté de droit de Montpellier, Gilbert Cette, Banque de France et Aix-Marseille University, AMSE et Gepy Koudadje, avocate au Cabinet Flichy Grangé Avocats et chargée d'enseignement université Paris-I Panthéon-Sorbonne.
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Abstract No abstract available
Keywords Sex based disparities, Primary care, Premiums, Physicians, Physician pay, Health policy, Health disparities, Gender pay gap
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Abstract We present a model of market hyper-segmentation, where a monopolist acquires within a short time all information about the preferences of consumers who purchase its vertically differentiated products. The firm offers a new price/quality schedule after each commitment period. Lower consumer types may have an incentive to delay their purchases until next period to obtain a better introductory offer. The monopolist counters this incentive by offering higher informational rents. Considering the dynamic game played by the monopolist and its customers, we find that there is always a Markov perfect equilibrium (MPE) in which the firm immediately sells the good to all customers, offering the Mussa-Rosen static equilibrium schedule to first time customers (and getting full commitment profits). However, if the commitment period between two offers is long enough, there is another MPE with gradual market expansion. Contrary to the Coasian result for a durable-good monopoly, we find that in both equilibria the profit of the monopolist increases (and the aggregate consumers surplus decreases) as the interval of commitment shrinks. The model yields policy implications for regulations on collection and storage of customers information. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Keywords Informational rent, Monopoly, Customer information, Markov perfect equilibrium, Coase conjecture
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Abstract We provide real-time evidence on the impact of Covid-19 restrictions policies on conflicts globally. We combine daily information on conflict events and government policy responses to limit the spread of coronavirus to study how conflict levels vary following shutdown and lockdown policies. We use the staggered implementation of restriction policies across countries to identify their effect on conflict incidence and intensity. Our results show that imposing a nationwide shutdown reduces the likelihood of daily conflict by around 9 percentage points. The reduction is driven by a drop in the incidence of battles, protests and violence against civilians. Across actors the decline is significant for conflicts involving political militias, protesters and civilians. We also observe a significant cross-country heterogeneity in the effect of restriction policies on conflict: no conflict reduction is observed in low income countries and in societies more fractionalized along ethnic or religious lines. We discuss the potential channels that can explain this heterogeneity.
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Abstract Tests are crucial to know about the number of people who have fallen ill with COVID-19 and to understand in real-time whether the dynamics of the pandemic is accelerating or decelerating. But tests are a scarce resource in many countries. The key but still open question is thus how to allocate tests across sub-national levels. We provide a data-driven and operational criterion to allocate tests efficiently across regions or provinces, with the view to maximize detection of people who have been infected. We apply our criterion to Italian regions and compute the shares of tests that should go to each region, which are shown to differ significantly from the actual distribution.
Keywords COVID-19, Italy, Acceleration of harm, Deceleration of harm, Epidemic dynamics, Efficiency criterion, Sub-national allocation of tests, Real-time Analysis
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Abstract How much do weather shocks matter? The literature addresses this question in two isolated ways: either by looking at long-term effects through the prism of calibrated theoretical models, or by focusing on both short and long terms through the lens of empirical models. We propose a framework that reconciles these two approaches by taking the theory to the data in two complementary ways. We first document the propagation mechanism of a weather shock using a Vector Auto-Regressive model on New Zealand Data. To explain the mechanism, we build and estimate a general equilibrium model with a weather-dependent agricultural sector to investigate the weather’s business cycle implications. We find that weather shocks: (i) explain about 35% of GDP and agricultural output fluctuations in New Zealand; (ii) entail a welfare cost of 0.30% of permanent consumption; (iii) critically increases the macroeconomic volatility under climate change, resulting in a higher welfare cost peaking to 0.46% in the worst case scenario of climate change.
Keywords Agriculture, Business Cycles, Weather shocks, Climate change
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Abstract Using two earned income/tax declaration experimental designs we show that only partial liars are affected by a truth-telling oath, a non-price commitment device. Under oath, we see no change in the number of chronic liars and fewer partial liars. Rather than smoothly increasing their compliance, we also observe that partial liars who respond to the oath, respond by becoming fully honest under oath. Based on both response times data and the consistency of subjects when several compliance decisions are made in a row, we show that partial lying arises as the result of weak preferences towards profitable honesty. The oath only transforms people with weak preferences for lying into being committed to the truth.
Keywords Tax evasion, Commitment, Oath, Honesty, Part-time Lying
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Abstract Two traditional theorems of welfare economics posit a trade-off between a government redistribution targets and efficiency. We propose a third ‘claim’ of welfare economics, stating that in closed economies the actual efficiency costs associated with redistribution are small. We then examine the claim in the current phase of ‘hyper-globalization’. On the one hand, a race-to-the-bottom in taxation restricts the capacity to tax high-earners and the associated brain drain may affect a country’s long-run growth. On the other hand, demand for social insurance should be particularly high in an open economy, especially with advancing digitalization. Xenophobic sentiments may, however, offset this demand. We also discuss the impact of globalization on wage equalization and productive efficiency. We conclude against the idea that the welfare state is intrinsically unable to carry out its redistributive function in an era of globalization. However, its strategies and tools of intervention must be rethought.
Keywords Taxation, Race to the bottom, Welfare state, Redistribution, Globalization
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Abstract Background: The future burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) depends on numerous factors such as population ageing, evolution of societal trends, behavioural and physiological risk factors of individuals (e.g. smoking, alcohol use, obesity, physical inactivity, and hypertension). This study aims to assess the burden of NCDs in Europe by 2050 under alternative scenarios. Methods: This study combines qualitative and quantitative forecasting techniques to examine how population health in Europe may evolve from 2015 to 2050, taking into account future societal trends. Four scenarios were developed (one business-as-usual scenario, two response scenarios and one pessimistic scenario) and assessed against 'best' and 'worst'-case scenarios. This study provides quantitative estimates of both diseases and mortality outcomes, using a microsimulation model incorporating international survey data. Findings: Each scenario is associated with a different risk factor prevalence rate across Europe during the period 2015-2050. The prevalence and incidence of NCDs consistently increase during the analysed time period, mainly driven by population ageing. In more optimistic scenarios, diseases will appear in later ages, while in the pessimistic scenarios, NCDs will impair working-age people. Life expectancy is expected to grow in all scenarios, but with differences by up to 4 years across scenarios and population groups. Premature mortality from NCDs will be reduced in more optimistic scenarios but stagnate in the worst-case scenario. Interpretation: Population ageing will have a greater impact on the spread of NCDs by 2050 compared to risk factors. Nevertheless, risk factors, which are influenced by living environments, are an important factor for determining future life expectancy in Europe.
Keywords Behavioral and social aspects of health, Social systems, Public and occupational health, Death rates, Health care policy, Epidemiology, Life expectancy, Europe
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Abstract In this paper, we propose a new variance reduction method for quantile regressions with endogeneity problems, for alpha-mixing or m-dependent covariates and error terms. First, we derive the asymptotic distribution of two-stage quantile estimators based on the fitted-value approach under very general conditions. Second, we exhibit an inconsistency transmission property derived from the asymptotic representation of our estimator. Third, using a reformulation of the dependent variable, we improve the efficiency of the two-stage quantile estimators by exploiting a tradeoff between an inconsistency confined to the intercept estimator and a reduction of the variance of the slope estimator. Monte Carlo simulation results show the fine performance of our approach. In particular, by combining quantile regressions with first-stage trimmed least-squares estimators, we obtain more accurate slope estimates than 2SLS, 2SLAD and other estimators for a broad set of distributions. Finally, we apply our method to food demand equations in Egypt.
Keywords Two-stage estimation, Variance reduction, Quantile regression, Asymptotic bias
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Abstract We study the dynamics of risk-sharing cooperatives among heterogeneous agents. Based of their knowledge on their risk exposure and the performance of the cooperatives, agents choose whether or not to remain in the risk-sharing agreement. We highlight the key role of other-regarding preference (altruism and inequality aversion) in stabilizing less segregated (and smaller) cooperatives. Limited knowledge and learning of own risk exposure also contributes to reducing segregation, the two effects (of learning and other-regarding preferences) being complementary. Our findings shed light on the mechanisms behind risk-sharing agreements between agents heterogeneous in their risk exposure.
Keywords Risk-sharing, Agent-based, Cooperative, Learning, Altruism, Other-regarding preferences
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Abstract Les sites qui proposent à leurs utilisateurs de reconstituer en ligne leur arbre généalogique fleurissent sur Internet. Cet article analyse le travail de collecte et de saisie effectué par ces utilisateurs et comment il pourrait être utilisé en démographie historique, afin de compléter la connaissance des générations du passé. Pour cela, les résultats obtenus à partir de la base Geneanet sont confrontés à ceux connus de la littérature, et concernent les enregistrements de 2 457 450 individus français ou d'origine française ayant vécu au xixe siècle. Est ainsi mis en évidence un biais important du rapport de masculinité (sous-représentation des femmes). La fécondité est elle aussi fortement sous-estimée. Quant à la mortalité, (par comparaison aux valeurs historiques), ces données sous-estiment la mortalité des hommes jusqu’à 40 ans environ et celle des femmes jusqu’à 25 ans, puis elles la surestiment. Enfin, la richesse des caractéristiques spatiales contenues dans les arbres généalogiques est également exploitée pour produire de nouvelles données sur les migrations internes au xixe siècle.
Keywords Fertility, Genealogy, Collaborative data, Historical demography, Mortality, Migration, Démographe historique, Fécondité, Généalogie, Migration, Longévité, Données collaboratives
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Abstract This study investigates the differences between zombie firms and non-zombie firms in corporate social responsibility activities such as reporting, disclosure and fulfillment. Using Chinese listing company data collected from 2009 to 2016, we apply a three stage model with a double Heckman correction to deal with potential self-selection/endogeneity bias and to measure the differences consistently. We found that zombie firms are less willing to release standalone corporate social responsibility reports than non-zombie firms. Among companies that release standalone corporate social responsibility reports, the corporate social responsibility disclosure of zombie firms is at least not worse than non-zombie firms, but the corporate social responsibility fulfillment is significantly lower. We conclude from this gap between disclosure and fulfillment to the hypocritical behavior of zombie firms, due to the absence of control in corporate social responsibility. We suggest that government should enhance supervision over zombie firms’ corporate social responsibility activities and subsidies towards them in order to lower their economic damage. Supplementary analyses provide some clues concerning the heterogeneity of inconsistence in term of external support characteristics, ownership and censorship which require further studies.
Keywords Hypocrisy, Fulfillment, Disclosure, Reports, Zombie firms, Corporate social responsibility
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Abstract We consider an economy with three cities producing different outputs. Two cities produce intermediate goods, a type 1 city producing an intermediate “agricultural” good with capital and labor only, and a type 2 city producing an intermediate “industrial” good with capital, labor, and human capital. A type 3 city produces the final good which is obtained from the two intermediate goods and labor. The asymmetric introduction of human capital allows us to prove that the three cities experience, at equilibrium, heterogeneous endogenous growth rates which are proportional to the growth rate of human capital. We show that the “industrial” type 2 city is characterized by the larger growth rate while the “agricultural” type 1 city experiences the lower growth rate, and thus the type 3 city is characterized by a growth rate which is a convex combination of the two former growth rates. This implies that the relative size in terms of output of the “agricultural” city decreases over time. This property allows us to recover the empirical fact that most non-agricultural production occurs in growing metropolitan areas. But, simultaneously, as we prove that total labor employed in each city is proportional to the total population, the relative population size distribution of cities is constant over time, as shown in empirical studies.
Keywords Urban dynamics, Human capital, Heterogeneous growth rates, Endogenous growth, City inequalities
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Abstract TIP curves are cumulative poverty gap curves used for representing the three different aspects of poverty: incidence, intensity and inequality. The paper provides Bayesian inference for TIP curves, linking their expression to a parametric representation of the income distribution using a mixture of log-normal densities. We treat specifically the question of zero-inflated income data and survey weights, which are two important issues in survey analysis. The advantage of the Bayesian approach is that it takes into account all the information contained in the sample and that it provides small sample credible intervals and tests for TIP dominance. We apply our methodology to evaluate the evolution of child poverty in Germany after 2002, providing thus an update the portrait of child poverty in Germany given in Corak et al. (Rev. Income Wealth 54(4), 547–571, 2008).
Keywords Bayesian inference, Survey weights, Mixture model, Zero-inflatedmodel, Inequality, Poverty
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Abstract L’évasion fiscale est un sujet qui se dérobe aux outils de l’analyse économique traditionnelle. D’une part, comme toute activité illégale, l’évasion fiscale échappe à l’observation du chercheur en même temps qu’elle se dissimule aux autorités : l’analyse empirique de son ampleur, de ses déterminants et de la manière dont différents dispositifs l’affectent est nécessairement très limitée. D’autre part, sur le plan théorique, l’application simple du calcul coût-bénéfice auquel est supposé se livrer le contribuable « rationnel » conduit à un paradoxe : contrairement à une idée largement répandue, les bénéfices de l’évasion fiscale sont tellement élevés, et le risque de sanction est tellement faible, que l’on peut s’étonner qu’elle soit aussi peu pratiquée dans l’ensemble des économies développées. Plutôt que l’évasion fiscale, c’est donc la « soumission fiscale » qui en constitue le pendant, la disposition à payer l’impôt, qu’il convient d’expliquer pour en comprendre les déterminants. Le double défi que posent les décisions d’évasion fiscale à l’analyse économique n’a pu être relevé que très récemment, grâce à l’émergence, au cours des vingt dernières années, d’une nouvelle approche, l’économie comportementale, qui s’appuie sur la psychologie pour mieux comprendre les comportements économiques ; et, conjointement, d’une nouvelle méthode, l’économie expérimentale, qui permet d’étudier empiriquement les comportements économiques sur lesquels il est difficile de collecter des données convaincantes. Cet opuscule rend compte des résultats de ces travaux et présente un panorama des outils de politique fiscale qui s’en dégagent.
Keywords Economie politique, Aspect psychologique, Lutte contre, Fraude fiscale
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Abstract Does drawing economic benefit from nature impinge on conservation? This has been a subject of controversy in the literature. The article presents a management method to overcome this possible dilemma, and reconcile conservation biology with economics. It is based on recent advances in the mathematical theory of dynamic systems under viability constraints. In the case of a one-locus two-allele plant coexisting with a one-locus two-allele parasite, the method provides a rule for deciding when and to what extent the resistant or the susceptible strain should be cultivated, in the uncertain time-varying presence of the parasite. This is useful for preventing the fixation of the susceptible allele - and thereby limiting the plant's vulnerability in the medium term, should the parasite reappear. The method thus provides an aid to decision for economic and ecology-friendly profitability.
Keywords Genetic distance, Genetic diversity, Sustainability, C-viability, Genetic resistance
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Abstract Price reviews are a potentially costly activity. A significant fraction of unchanged prices may stem from firms not reviewing prices, rather than from obstacles to changing prices per se, such as menu costs. In this paper, we disentangle these two causes of price stickiness by estimating an inflated ordered probit model on a panel of French manufacturing firms. The results point to a low frequency of price reviews, suggestive of the relevance of information costs as a determinant of the observed price stickiness. In view of the “inattentive producers” literature, pointing that the source of price rigidity matters, this is suggestive of a large real effect of monetary policy.
Keywords Inflated ordered probit model, Price changes, Price reviews, Price stickiness
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