Publications

Abstract Financial inclusion is a policy priority in both developed and developing countries. Yet almost one in four people remain financially excluded around the globe, with the vast majority living in the developing world. In this paper, we argue that financial resilience: an individual’s ability to function effectively in adverse financial situations, can better help us assist people to cope with financial adversity, develop effective policy and, ultimately, improve economic development. This paper builds on an existing financial resilience measurement framework and adapts it to develop a measure appropriate to the context of developing countries. Indonesia, where one in three people are financially excluded, is used as a case country from which to draw conclusions. We use the Indonesia Family Life Survey and put forward the country’s first snapshot of financial resilience. Implications for research and policy are presented.
Keywords Indonesia, Poverty, Economic development, Financial resilience, Financial inclusion
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Abstract Scarcity of data on the health impacts and associated economic costs of heat waves may limit the will to invest in adaptation measures. We assessed the economic impact associated with mortality, morbidity, and loss of well-being during heat waves in France between 2015 and 2019. Methods Health indicators monitored by the French national heat wave plan were used to estimate excess visits to emergency rooms and outpatient clinics and hospitalizations for heat-related causes. Total excess mortality and years of life loss were considered, as well as the size of the population that experienced restricted activity. A cost-of-illness and willingness-to-pay approach was used to account for associated costs. Results Between 2015 and 2019, the economic impact of selected health effects of heat waves amounts to €25.5 billion, mainly in mortality (€23.2 billion), minor restricted activity days (€2.3 billion), and morbidity (€0.031 billion). Conclusion A better understanding of the economic impacts of climate change on health is required to support concrete adaptation actions and to alert decision-makers to the urgency of the situation.
Keywords Climate change, Economic assessment, Mortality, Heat-related illness, Extreme heat
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Abstract This chapter provides a review of the recent literature on bubble testing in real estate markets. Starting from a theoretical overview of the specificities of real estate assets we assess the latest econometric methodology to detect the periods when a real estate bubble is present. In an illustration for the case of Japan's house prices over four decades, we focus on a two-step econometric strategy to first filter out the fundamental component in the price-to-rent ratio and then test for the possible explosive character of the, non-fundamental, residual. Such a strategy enables researchers both to avoid misleading signals about spurious bubbles, and to detect bubbles which may be hidden when focusing only on the price-to-rent ratio.
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Abstract Deviations of asset prices from the random walk dynamic imply the predictability of asset returns and thus have important implications for portfolio construction and risk management. This paper proposes a real-time monitoring device for such deviations using intraday high-frequency data. The proposed procedures are based on unit root tests with in-fill asymptotics but extended to take the empirical features of high-frequency financial data (particularly jumps) into consideration. We derive the limiting distributions of the tests under both the null hypothesis of a random walk with jumps and the alternative of mean reversion/explosiveness with jumps. The limiting results show that ignoring the presence of jumps could potentially lead to severe size distortions of both the standard left-sided (against mean reversion) and right-sided (against explosiveness) unit root tests. The simulation results reveal satisfactory performance of the proposed tests even with data from a relatively short time span. As an illustration, we apply the procedure to the Nasdaq composite index at the 10-minute frequency over two periods: around the peak of the dot-com bubble and during the 2015–2106 stock market sell-off. We find strong evidence of explosiveness in asset prices in late 1999 and mean reversion in late 2015. We also show that accounting for jumps when testing the random walk hypothesis on intraday data is empirically relevant and that ignoring jumps can lead to different conclusions.
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Abstract A large literature characterises urbanisation as resulting from productivity growth attracting rural workers to cities. Incorporating economic geography elements into a growth model, we suggest that causation runs the other way: when rural workers move to cities, the resulting urbanisation produces technological change and productivity growth. Urban density leads to knowledge exchange and innovation, thus creating a positive feedback loop between city size and productivity that initiates sustained economic growth. This model is consistent with the fact that urbanisation rates in western Europe, most notably England, reached unprecedented levels by the mid-eighteenth century, the eve of the Industrial Revolution.
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Abstract This article offers a general reflection on governance and managerial practices within a Social and Solidarity Economy (SSE) and suggests that in a time of profound socioeconomic change, it is in SSE companies’ interest to establish global sustainable governance and responsible team management systems consistent with both the values structuring this domain as well as employee aspirations. This a French point of view with a sustainable dimension based on a literature review and on several published studies but not on an empirical approach. In a way it is an essay more than a demonstration. It is a proposal which could lead to methodological work. Here is a first step.
Keywords Governance, Management, SE, Values, Staff, Sustainability
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Abstract In an earlier article, we found that a univariate state space time series model estimated using the Kalman filter provided reasonably accurate monthly forecasts of generic Bordeaux red wine prices for the period up to 2016. We use the same model to forecast prices for the period 2017 to 2020, a period in which the market for this wine was subject to a number of demand and supply shocks. We find that the model's forecasts are poor from late 2018 through 2019 when the price collapsed from an all-time high and returned levels not seen since 2012. There is evidence of a structural break or regime change, and we explore the underlying reasons for this. The main one is the collapse in Chinese demand for Bordeaux wines which was brought about by a combination of shocks.
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Abstract In this chapter, we revisit the origins and genesis of the french school of proximity and its evolution trough time, in order to better understand how and why the small group of researchers who were the driving force of this new way of thinking were quickly able to get a real legitimacy and effective recognition. First of all, it was clear that the role of space in economic dynamics was too often the subject of confusion and abusive assertions. Asking this question in terms of coordination made it possible to consider non-spatial factors in the analysis. The notion of proximity as a polysemic concept therefore opened the way to understanding how space matters or not, together with these other factors thus a renewed approach of questions related to space and territories. But, even starting from issues of economic nature, such an approach could not remain limited to its economic dimension, the questions of coordination involving social individuals, located in geographical space but also embedded in bundles of relationships and in institutions. Thus, it had to broaden very quickly to other disciplines in social sciences which largely contributed to consolidate the bases of what became a multidisciplinary approach and to develop theoretical as well as empirical tools.
Keywords Multidisciplinary approach, Social science, Territory, Embeddedness, Coordination, Geography, Space, Proximity
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Abstract En suivant une démarche pluridisciplinaire, associant le droit, l'économie et la littérature, cet ouvrage se propose de resituer le marché dans la genèse de l'idée d'Europe et de son corollaire : le projet européen. Le marché, le grand marché sous sa forme contemporaine, est-il un facteur de civilisation suffisamment puissant pour unifier le continent ? Et, partant, peut-on le relier à un sentiment d'appartenance ? Si c'est le cas, sur quelles valeurs culturelles repose-t-il et quelle est la teneur de son message éthique ? Ce questionnement s'inscrit dans le mouvement actuel d'universalisation de l'économie de marché, mouvement lui-même en débat dès lors qu'il est soumis à la discussion d'une opinion publique mondiale. Les auteurs du présent ouvrage se sont confrontés à ces débats qui portent tout autant sur l'héritage économique de l'Europe que sur son devenir. Le principal enjeu est bien de définir une spécificité européenne, plus précisément une éthique, dans la vision du marché qui concerne tous les secteurs de l'économie, y compris l'économie de la culture. (éditeur)
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Abstract In his Scope and Method of Economics (1890), John Neville Keynes applied a tripartite distinction to the tasks of economists, dividing these into descriptions, norms and prescriptions. Keynes’s book both recapitulated debates revolving around the goals and limits of Classical political economy and opened a path towards debates between contemporary economists (Marshall among others) and philosophers of economics. The Scope and Method was thus a landmark that both closed an era and opened the next epoch in the history of economic thought. The chapter discusses his stance with respect to historical economics and its role in Britain at the time the Historical school dominated economics in Germany and the German-language literature. These issues are relevant to the normative vs. positive debate since German historicists’ defence of an ‘ethical’ orientation of political economy led to major methodological debates. Lessons are to be drawn that go beyond the disputes of the time on the role of the normative and the positive in economics regarded as a science.
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Abstract This paper investigates the effects of e-procurement on firm corruption to secure public contracts, highlighting the moderating roles of the quality of governance institutions and supranational support in that relationship. Taking transaction cost economics as our theoretical lens, and building on a sample of 8,373 firms in 72 countries from 2008 to 2019, we find that the adoption of an e-procurement system in fact reduces firm corruption. However, this effect is only unveiled once one accounts in the analysis for the quality of country-level governance institutions, which also makes the relationship stronger. We also find an eprocurement system only to effectively address firm corruption when it benefits from supranational support. The study contributes to the ongoing academic debate on the impact of digitalization on corruption.
Keywords Corruption, E-procurement, Governance institutions, Supranational support, Transaction costs, Digitalization
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Abstract We first give a pre-order principle whose form is very general. Combining the pre-order principle and generalized Gerstewitz functions, we establish a general equilibrium version of set-valued Ekeland variational principle (denoted by EVP), where the objective function is a set-valued bimap defined on the product of quasi-metric spaces and taking values in a quasi-ordered linear space, and the perturbation consists of a subset of the ordering cone multiplied by the quasi-metric. From this, we obtain a number of new results which essentially improve the related results. Particularly, the earlier lower boundedness condition has been weakened. Finally, we apply the new EVPs to Psychology.
Keywords Gerstewitz function, Pre-order principle, Quasi-metric space, Set-valued perturbation, Equilibrium version of Ekeland variational principle
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Abstract This paper provides a tool to build climate change scenarios to forecast Gross Domestic Product (GDP), modelling both GDP damage due to climate change and the GDP impact of mitigating measures. It adopts a supply-side, long-term view, with 2060 and 2100 horizons. It is a global projection tool (30 countries/regions), with assumptions and results both at the world and the country/regional level. Five different types of energy inputs are taken into account according to their CO2 emission factors. Full calibration is possible at each stage, with estimated or literature-based default parameters. Compared to other models, it provides a comprehensive modelisation of Total Factor Productivity (TFP), which is the most significant determinant of the GDP projected path. We present simulation results of different energy policy scenarios. They illustrate both the “tragedy of the horizon” and the “tragedy of the commons”, which call for a policy framework that adequately integrates a long run perspective, through a low-enough discount rate and an effective intergenerational solidarity as well as international cooperation.
Keywords Climate, Global warming, Energy prices, Environmental policy, Growth, Productivity, Long-term projections
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Abstract This paper aims at comparing two coupling approaches as basic layers for building clustering criteria, suited for modularizing and clustering very large networks. We briefly use "optimal transport theory" as a starting point, and a way as well, to derive two canonical couplings: "statistical independence" and "logical indetermination". A symmetric list of properties is provided and notably the so called "Monge’s properties", applied to contingency matrices, and justifying the $\otimes$ versus $\oplus$ notation. A study is proposed, highlighting "logical indetermination", because it is, by far, lesser known. Eventually we estimate the average difference between both couplings as the key explanation of their usually close results in network clustering.
Keywords Graph Theoretical Approaches, Optimal Transport, Correlation Clustering, Coupling Functions, Logical Indetermination, Mathematical Relational Analysis
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Abstract We compare distributions of Body Mass Index (BMI) categories among genders in France, the US and the UK on the basis of effciency and inequality considerations. The new normative criteria that we propose are well-suited to the ordinal nature of this variable. Our empirical results, which are supported by robust statistical inference, are twofolds. First, BMI categories are better distributed in France than in the UK, and in the UK than in the US for the two genders. Second, BMI categories happen to be more equally distributed among men than among women in all three countries.
Keywords Ordinal, Gender, Effciency, Equality, Body mass index
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Abstract a France est riche. La valeur de son patrimoine foncier s'élève aujourd'hui à 7 000 milliards d'euros, soit six années de revenu national, contre à peine une année après la Seconde Guerre mondiale. Comment expliquer cette hausse et à qui profite-t-elle ? S'agit-il d'une bulle immobilière un peu plus durable que les autres ? Et, sinon, quelles conséquences faut-il en tirer pour notre économie ?Dans ce livre passionnant et minutieusement documenté, Alain Trannoy et Etienne Wasmer expliquent pourquoi la terre urbaine s'est considérablement valorisée au cours des trente dernières années, une tendance que la préférence française pour le foncier et les contraintes écologiques (le "zéro artificialisation") ne peuvent que conforter.Alors que faire de cette manne providentielle ? Les auteurs proposent ni plus ni moins qu'une révolution fiscale.Avec un objectif : diminuer fortement les impôts grevant l'activité économique, augmenter les salaires tout en soutenant l'accumulation du capital productif, afin de pérenniser notre modèle social.Une proposition audacieuse, pour réconcilier justice sociale et efficacité économique.
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Abstract Ce texte tente de dresser un état des lieux entre les similitudes que présente l’analyse économique des communs d’Elinor Ostrom et la doctrine sociale de l’Eglise (DSE), telle qu’elle s’exprime dans le Compendium et dans les encycliques du Pape François. La destination universelle des biens, avec pour objectif la satisfaction des besoins de l’humanité, est un des principes de la DSE. La réponse économique passe par la production de biens et services privés ou publics. Ostrom enrichit ces réponses à la destination universelle des biens en développant une troisième possibilité, la production par la coopération pour les communs. Par ailleurs, les travaux d’Elinor Ostrom confirment deux principes de la DSE, la participation et la subsidiarité. L’histoire économique montre que la gestion pérenne des communs passe par la participation de tous les agents concernés, participation qui se manifeste dans les décisions collectives et dans le contrôle. Cette participation stimule la qualité et la circulation de l’information, une qualité de la société que souligne l’encyclique Fratelli Tutti. Quant à l’organisation polycentrique qu’Ostrom étudie dans la gestion des nappes d’eau souterraines en Californie au XXème siècle, c’est une mise en valeur du principe de subsidiarité. Cette confrontation fait néanmoins naître des questions, en particulier sur la solidarité qui repose sur le souci du bien commun pour la DSE. Pour Elinor Ostrom, la solidarité repose sur l’intérêt personnel ou du groupe sur la longue période. Ostrom reste dans la logique de la rationalité économique, une vision commune du bien de l’humanité n’est pas nécessaire pour qu’une solidarité se manifeste. Malgré les interrogations qu’elle soulève, la convergence entre l’approche positive des communs et l’approche normative de la DSE est remarquable dans l’histoire de la connaissance.
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Abstract In the context of credit scoring, ensemble methods based on decision trees, such as the random forest method, provide better classification performance than standard logistic regression models. However, logistic regression remains the benchmark in the credit risk industry mainly because the lack of interpretability of ensemble methods is incompatible with the requirements of financial regulators. In this paper, we propose a high-performance and interpretable credit scoring method called penalised logistic tree regression (PLTR), which uses information from decision trees to improve the performance of logistic regression. Formally, rules extracted from various short-depth decision trees built with original predictive variables are used as predictors in a penalised logistic regression model. PLTR allows us to capture non-linear effects that can arise in credit scoring data while preserving the intrinsic interpretability of the logistic regression model. Monte Carlo simulations and empirical applications using four real credit default datasets show that PLTR predicts credit risk significantly more accurately than logistic regression and compares competitively to the random forest method
Keywords Risk management, Credit scoring, Machine learning, Interpretability, Econometrics
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Abstract L'aide internationale au planning familial est dominée par un bailleur de fonds, les USA, dont l'allocation dépend de débats nationaux autour de l'avortement. Ce papier regarde comment les autres donateurs ajustent leur financement en réaction. Les autres donateurs s'emparent alors de ce problème pour exister dans le secteur du planning familial. Sous les mandatures de G.W. Bush et de D. Trump, les pays européens, par l'intermédiaire du parlement européen et des commissaires en charge de l'aide au développement, ont ainsi condamné cette politique et affirmé qu'ils allaient compenser les pertes. Toutefois plusieurs raisons suggèrent que la réalité puisse être différente. La taille des budgets des autres donateurs est relativement faible 1 Ce travail a bénéficié d'une aide de l'Etat opérée par l'Agence Nationale de la Recherche au titre du plan d'investissement France 2030 portant la référence ANR-17-EURE-0020 et de l'Initiative d'Excellence d'Aix-Marseille Université-A* MIDEX. 2 Cela regroupe les activités permettant aux femmes de contrôler le nombre et le calendrier de ses grossesses : conseil, contraception, avortement, procréation médicalement assistée en cas d'infertilité. 3 L'aide est interdite pour les pays pratiquant des stérilisations forcées, mise en avant les méthodes traditionnelles et naturelles de contraception, fin de la recherche sur la pilule abortive…
Keywords Aide au développement, Planning familial, Interaction, Coordination, Donnateurs
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