Publications

Abstract This study investigates how El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate patterns affect global economic conditions. Prior research suggests that ENSO phases, particularly El Niño, influence economic outcomes, but with limited consensus on their broader macroeconomic impacts. Using a novel monthly dataset from 20 economies, covering 80% of global output from 1999 to 2022, we employ a global augmented vector autoregression with local projections (GAVARLP) model. The empirical findings suggest that El Niño boosts output with minimal inflationary effects, reducing global economic policy uncertainty, while La Niña raises food inflation, which can amplify aggregate inflation as a ‘‘second-round’’ effect, amplifying uncertainty. These findings shed light on the transmission channels of climate shocks and highlight the significant role of ENSO in shaping global economic conditions, emphasizing why climate shocks should be a concern for policy markers.
Keywords Climate ENSO, Oil prices, Food prices, Global macroeconometric modeling, Economic policy uncertainty
Publication HAL Google Scholar
Abstract Cet article analyse les difficultés anticipées par les entreprises en France lorsqu'elles envisagent de recruter. En croisant les données des enquêtes Besoins en main-d'oeuvre de 2018 et 2019 avec les données d'entreprise FARE et DADS, nous étudions comment les difficultés de recrutement se déclinent selon le secteur, la localisation et la taille de l'établissement et selon les caractéristiques du bassin d'emploi. L'ensemble de ces caractéristiques explique environ 6 % de la variance totale observée des difficultés de recrutement anticipées et jusqu'à 14 % si l'on y ajoute les difficultés de recrutement éventuellement anticipées l'année précédente. L'essentiel des difficultés anticipées résulte ainsi de facteurs non observés dans les données utilisées dans cet article, en lien potentiellement avec les caractéristiques internes propres à chaque établissement, comme la qualité du management et les spécificités des processus de recrutement.
Keywords Probit, Company data, Recruitment difficulties, Probit, Données d&#039, entreprises, Difficultés de recrutement
Publication HAL Google Scholar
Abstract This paper studies the dynamics of information diffusion within networks, encompassing both general and targeted dissemination. We first characterize the theoretical foundations of diffusion centrality. Next, we introduce two extensions of diffusion centrality: targeting centrality and reachability, that we believe to better capture situations involving targeted requests. We derive general explicit formulas for the computation of these novel centrality measures.
Keywords Diffusion, Centrality, Political intermediation, Targeting
Publication HAL Google Scholar
Abstract Background The γ-metric value is generally used as the importance score of a feature (or a set of features) in a clas- sification context. This study aimed to go further by creating a new methodology for multivariate feature selection for classification, whereby the γ-metric is associated with a specific search direction (and therefore a specific stopping criterion). As three search directions are used, we effectively created three distinct methods. MethodsWe assessed the performance of our new methodology through a simulation study, comparing them against more conventional methods. Classification performance indicators, number of selected features, stability and execution time were used to evaluate the performance of the methods. We also evaluated how well the proposed methodology selected relevant features for the detection of atrial fibrillation, which is a cardiac arrhythmia. ResultsWe found that in the simulation study as well as the detection of AF task, our methods were able to select informative features and maintain a good level of predictive performance; however in a case of strong correlation and large datasets, the γ-metric based methods were less efficient to exclude non-informative features. Conclusions Results highlighted a good combination of both the forward search direction and the γ-metric as an evaluation function. However, using the backward search direction, the feature selection algorithm could fall into a local optima and can be improved.
Keywords Atrial fibrillation, Classification, Feature selection, Γ-metric
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Abstract In this paper, we show that a decomposition of changes in inequality, with the mean log deviation index, can be obtained directly from the Oaxaca-Blinder decompositions of changes in means of incomes and log-incomes. It allows practitioners to conduct simultaneously empirical analyses to explain which factors account for changes in means and in inequality indices between two distributions with strictly positive values.
Keywords MLD index, Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition, Inequality, Inequality Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition MLD index
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Abstract Within the International Health Regulations framework, the French High Council for Public Health was mandated in 2022 by health authorities to establish a list of priority infectious diseases for public health, surveillance and research in mainland and overseas France. Aim Our objective was to establish this list. Methods A multi-criteria decision analysis was used, as recommended by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. A list of 95 entities (infectious diseases or groups of these, including the World Health Organization (WHO)-labelled ‘Disease X’) was established by 17 infectious disease experts. Ten criteria were defined to score entities: incidence rate, case fatality rate, potential for emergence and spread, impact on the individual, on society, on socially vulnerable groups, on the healthcare system, and need for new preventive tools, new curative therapies, and surveillance. Each criterion was assigned a relative weight by 77 multidisciplinary experts. For each entity, 98 physicians from various specialties rated each criterion against the entity, using a four-class Likert-type scale; the ratings were converted into numeric values with a nonlinear scale and respectively weighted to calculate the entity score. Results Fifteen entities were ranked as high-priorities, including Disease X and 14 known pathologies (e.g. haemorrhagic fevers, various respiratory viral infections, arboviral infections, multidrug-resistant bacterial infections, invasive meningococcal and pneumococcal diseases, prion diseases, rabies, and tuberculosis). Conclusion The priority entities agreed with those of the WHO in 2023; almost all were currently covered by the French surveillance and alert system. Repeating this analysis periodically would keep the list updated.
Keywords Communicable Diseases, Decision Support Techniques, France, Health Priorities, Humans, PUBLIC HEALTH, Surveys and Questionnaires, Epidemiology, Multi-criteria decision analysis
Publication HAL Google Scholar
Abstract This study first time explores the impact of total factor productivity, renewable energy, exports, imports, and income on carbon emissions in the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) nations. To ensure that the results are sound and policy insights are well-grounded, three main issues of panel data – cross-sectional dependency, heterogeneity, and nonstationarity – are addressed using cutting-edge methods. Moreover, a theoretically justified framework is employed, offering advantages such as considering a broad set of factors, which are actionable from a climate policy perspective, with dual benefits of emissions reduction and supporting clean growth. We find that total factor productivity, renewable energy, and exports reduce carbon emissions, while income and imports have an increasing effect. Policymakers in GECF countries may consider implementing measures to support technological advancements, efficiency improvements, increased use of renewable energy, expanded exports, and lowered imports. They can reduce emissions while promoting sustainable economic growth.
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Abstract This paper utilizes data from the 2017 China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) to examine the impact of loss aversion on individuals' willingness to relocate due to environmental concerns. We find that individuals who are more loss averse are less likely to consider moving, resulting in what is called the status-quo bias. In addition, we find that individuals with stronger family ties as measured by the number of siblings and higher household fixed assets are more susceptible to these effects, implying that they are more attached to their current place of residence and less likely to relocate.We thank Ling Zhou and one anonymous referee for constructive comments.
Keywords Family ties, Status-quo bias, Loss aversion, Willingness to relocate
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Abstract This paper uses French data to simultaneously estimate the impact of two types of connections on government subsidies allocated to municipalities. Investigating different types of connection in a same setting helps to distinguish between the different motivations that could drive pork-barreling. We differentiate between municipalities where ministers held office before their appointment to the government and those where they lived as children. Exploiting ministers' entries into and exits from the government, we show that municipalities where a minister was mayor receive 30% more investment subsidies when the politician they are linked to joins the government, and a similar size decrease when the minister departs. In contrast, we do not observe these outcomes for municipalities where ministers lived as children. These findings indicate that altruism toward childhood friends and family does not fuel pork-barreling, and suggest that altruism toward adulthood social relations or career concerns matter. We also present complementary evidence suggesting that observed porkbarreling is the result of soft influence of ministers, rather than of their formal control over the administration they lead.✩ This paper was previously circulated under the titles ''What motivates French pork: Political career concerns or private connections?'' and ''The returns from private and political connections: New evidence from French municipalities''. We greatly appreciated comments and suggestions from three anonymous reviewers, the Editor,
Keywords Personal connections, Political connections, Distributive politics, Local favoritism
Publication HAL Google Scholar
Abstract This paper considers a risk-neutral insurer and a risk-averse individual who bargain over the terms of an insurance contract. Under asymmetric Nash bargaining, we show that the Pareto-optimal insurance contract always contains a straight deductible under linear transaction costs and that the deductible disappears if and only if the deadweight cost is zero, regardless of the insurer’s bargaining power. We further find that the optimality of no insurance is consistent across all market structures. When the insured’s risk preference exhibits decreasing absolute risk aversion, the optimal deductible and the insurer’s expected loss decrease in the degree of the insured’s risk aversion and thus increase in the insured’s initial wealth. In addition, the effect of increasing the insurer’s bargaining power on the optimal deductible is equivalent to a pure effect of reducing the initial wealth of the insured. Our results suggest that the well-documented preference for low deductibles could be the result of insurance bargaining.
Keywords Asymmetric Nash bargaining, Risk sharing, Deductible insurance, Wealth effect, Overinsurance
Publication HAL Google Scholar