Working papers

Abstract The Malthusian trap is a well recognized source of stagnation in per capita income prior to industrialization. However, previous studies have found mixed evidence about its exact strength. This article contributes to this ongoing debate, by estimating the speed of convergence for a wide range of economies and a large part of the Malthusian era. I build a simple Malthusian growth model and derive the speed of convergence to the steady state. A calibration exercise for the English Malthusian economy reveals a relatively weak Malthusian trap, or weak homeostasis, with a half-life of 112 years. I then use β-convergence regressions and historical panel data on per capita income and population to empirically estimate the speed of convergence for a large set of countries. I find consistent evidence of weak homeostasis, with the mode of half-lives around 120 years. The weak homeostasis pattern is stable from the 11th to the 18th century. However, I highlight significant differences in the strength of the Malthusian trap, with some economies converging significantly faster or slower than others.
Keywords Marriage, Fertility, Malthusian model, Beta-convergence, Preventive checks, Malthusian trap, Homeostasis, Convergence
Download HAL Google Scholar
Abstract Objectives: To analyse how general practitioners (GPs) respond to insucient GP supply in their practice area in terms of quantity and quality of care, and how this response can be mediated by enrolment in integrated primary care teams (multi-professional group practices (MGP)). Methods: We used three representative cross-sectional surveys (2019-2020) of 1,209 French GPs. Using structural equations, we assumed that low GP density inuences GPs' work-related stress (mediator 1) as well as their use of e-health tools (mediator 2) and ultimately quantity and quality of care. Quantity (respectively quality) of care were approximated by demand absorption capacities (respectively frequencies of vaccine recommendations). We estimated an additional specication where enrolment in an MGP was a mediator between GP density and the two mediators dened above. Results: GP density was signicantly and positively associated with work-related stress, which was consecutively associated with deteriorated demand absorption capacity. Higher use of e-health tools was associated with greater involvement in vaccine recommendations. Lastly, GPs in MGP tend to use more e-health tools than those practicing outside MGP, with a favourable eect on quality of care. Discussion: This study demonstrates that a lower level of work-related stress is the key mediator in handling patients' requests. Correcting for the self-selection into MGP, we amend some unstable results contained in the literature: there is no signicant mediation eect of enrolment in integrated primary care teams on the quantity of care, but rather an eect on the quality of care. Although probably disappointing for the quantity of care provided, our results pinpoint a novel added value of enrolment in an integrated practice as a response to decreasing GP density.
Keywords General practitioners, Medically underserved area, Integrated care, France
Download HAL Google Scholar
Abstract This paper contributes to the literature interested in the new factors that may determine fertility behaviors. Many studies underlay that environmental concerns have a direct effect on households' fertility decisions. We present a dynamic model that explicitly examines this interplay, considering whether the number of children and environmental concerns may be complementary or substitutable. Interesting results occur when environmental concerns and the number of children are substitutable. At a stable steady state, a stronger effect of environmental concerns on household's preferences reduces the number of children, as also stressed by a recent literature. The dynamics can be described by an inversely Ushaped relationship between fertility and environmental indicators reflecting the impact of economic production, such as the carbon intensity, as we illustrate using data on US States. The dynamics also explain that regions with lower carbon intensity are those with lower fertility.
Keywords Fertility, Environmental concerns, Quantity-quality trade-off, Transitional dynamics
Download HAL Google Scholar
Abstract Aims: we propose a sociotechnical taxonomy for the analysis of socioeconomic disruptions caused by technological innovations. Methodology: a transdisciplinary principled approach is used to build the taxonomy through categorization and characterization of technologies using concepts and definitions originating from cybernetics, occupational science, and economics. The sociotechnical taxonomy is then used, with the help of logical propositions, to connect the characteristics of different categories of technologies to their socioeconomic effects, for example their externalities. Results: we offer concrete illustrations of concepts and uses, and an Industry 5.0 case study as an application of the taxonomy. We suggest that the taxonomy can inform the analysis of opportunities and risks related to technological disruptions, specially of those that result from the rise of cognitive machines.
Keywords Cognitive machines, Sociotechnical taxonomy, Occupational science, Artificial intelligence, Technological disruptions, Industry 50, Externalities, Skillreplacing, Skill-enhancing, Cognitive technology, Physical technology, Autonomous, Automatic, Technological innovations
Publication Download HAL Google Scholar
Abstract In this paper, we examine rebalancing strategies for long-term institutional investors. Specifically, we test the difference in risk-adjusted performances between stock-bond portfolios based on buy-and-hold, periodic and threshold rebalancing strategies. Using the Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF) as a benchmark and an econometric approach based on a bootstrap test of Sharpe ratios difference, we show that the optimal rebalancing differs across economic and financial cycles. Furthermore, we find that the optimal strategy is periodic rebalancing except during recessions and crises when the buy-and-hold approach is best, thus calling into question the hypothesis of the countercyclical behavior of SWFs. Our results are robust to alternative performance measures, asset allocations, investment horizons, rebalancing rule, nonnormal and non-iid returns, transaction costs and time sampling. Finally, our findings promote the consideration of macroprudential rules to improve the Santiago Principles and a specific monitoring framework targeted at SWFs.
Keywords Portfolio rebalancing, Financial stability, Bootstrap Test, Institutional investors
Download HAL Google Scholar
Abstract Higher uncertainty about trade policy has recessionary effects in U.S. states. First, this paper builds a novel empirical measure of regional trade policy uncertainty, based on the volatility of national import tariffs at the sectoral level and the sectoral composition of imports in U.S. states. We show that a state which is more exposed to an unanticipated increase in tariff volatility suffers from a larger drop in real output and employment, relative to the average U.S. state. We then build a regional open-economy model and we argue that the transmission channels of uncertainty shocks, in particular the precautionary-pricing channel, are magnified in regions that feature the highest import share and a strongest export intensity. Furthermore, we show that an expansionary monetary policy may amplify the regional divergence since it worsens the recession in the most-exposed region to trade policy uncertainty.
Keywords JEL classification E32, E52, F41 Uncertainty Shocks, JEL classification E32 E52 F41 Uncertainty Shocks Regional Effects Precautionary Pricing Monetary Policy, Monetary policy, Precautionary Pricing, Regional effects, Uncertainty shocks
Download HAL Google Scholar
Abstract Survey data are known for under-reporting rich households while providing large information on contextual variables. Tax data provide a better representation of top incomes at the expense of lacking any contextual variables. So the literature has developed several methods to combine the two sources of information. For Pareto imputation, the question is how to chose the Pareto model for the right tail of the income distribution. The Pareto I model has the advantage of simplicity. But Jenkins (2017) promoted the use of the Pareto II for its nicer properties, reviewing three different approaches to correct for missing top incomes. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian approach to combine tax and survey data, using a Pareto II tail. We build on the extreme value literature to develop a compound model where the lower part of the income distribution is approximated with a Bernstein polynomial truncated density estimate while the upper part is represented by a Pareto II. This provides a way to estimate the threshold where to start the Pareto II. Then WID tax data are used to build up a prior information for the Pareto coefficient in the form of a gamma prior density to be combined with the likelihood function. We apply the methodology to the EU-SILC data set to decompose the Gini index. We finally analyse the impact of top income correction on the Growth Incidence Curve between 2008 and 2018 for a group of 23 European countries.
Keywords D63, I31, D31, EU-SILC JEL codes C11, Bayesian inference Pareto II profile likelihood Bernstein density estimation top income correction EU-SILC JEL codes C11 D31 D63 I31, EU-SILC, Top income correction, Bernstein density estimation, Profile likelihood, Pareto II, Bayesian inference
Download HAL Google Scholar
Abstract Revolutions are often perceived as the key event triggering the fall of an autocratic regime. They are believed to be driven by the people with the purpose of establishing a democratic regime for the people. However, the historical record does not agree with this picture: revolutions are rare, elite-driven, and often non-democratising. We first develop a new set of stylised facts summarising and deepening the latter features. Second, to explain these facts, we develop a theory of elite-driven non-democratising institutional changes triggered by popular uprisings. Our model includes four key ingredients: (i) a minority/majority split in the population; (ii) the persistence of fiscal particularism post-revolution; (iii) the presence of windfall resources; (iv) a distinction between labour income and resource windfalls as well as endogeneity of the labour supply. We show that revolutions are initiated by the elite and only when fractionalisation is moderate. Resource windfalls and labour market repression can also play a role in triggering this 'alliance' between the majority and the elite. If a revolution happens, redistribution in the subsequent regime still favours the elite, although the masses are better off.
Keywords Dominant minorities, Elite-led revolutions, Social structures, Particularism, Resources
Download HAL Google Scholar
Abstract While the educational expansion of the 20 th century promoted social mobility overall, the top of the social hierarchy may have remained privileged. This paper examines the evolution of intergenerational mobility in admissions to the French elite colleges-the Grandes Écoles (GE)-over more than a century. Admission to these institutions is subject to partially anonymous competitive examinations, and their degrees are the ticket to top positions in the public and private sectors. In the growing literature measuring intergenerational mobility through surnames, I design a novel method and apply it to a self-collected dataset on all 285,286 graduates from ten of the most prestigious Grandes Écoles between 1886 and 2015. Principally, I find that children of male GE graduates were highly over-represented in the top colleges throughout the 20 th century. Importantly, unlike previous studies exploiting fathers' socio-professional categories, I find a stable low level of intergenerational mobility for all cohorts born since 1916: chances of GE admission for children of GE graduates were approximately 80 times higher than for the rest of the population.
Keywords N34 Intergenerational mobility, I23, JEL Classification J62, JEL Classification J62 I23 N34 Intergenerational mobility Higher education Elites Grandes Écoles Historical economics, Historical economics, Grandes Écoles, Elites, Higher education, Intergenerational Mobility
Download HAL Google Scholar
Abstract Mexican cities along the US-Mexico border, especially Cd. Juarez, became notorious due to high femicide rates supposedly associated with maquiladora industries and the NAFTA. Nonetheless, statistical evaluation of data from 1990 to 2012 shows that their rates are consistent with other Mexican cities' rates and tend to fall with increased employment opportunities in maquiladoras. Femicide rates in Cd. Juarez are in most years like rates in Cd. Chihuahua and Ensenada and, as a share of overall homicide rates, are lower than in most cities evaluated. These results challenge conventional wisdom and most of the literature on the subject.
Keywords Juarez, Mexico, Border, Femicide, Homicide, Violence against women, Gender violence, Crime, Maquiladoras
Download HAL Google Scholar