Working papers

Abstract In this paper, we use tools from network theory to trace the properties of the matching function to the structure of granular connections between applicants and firms. We link seemingly disparate parts of the literature and recover existing functional forms as special cases. Our overarching message is that structure counts. For rich structures, captured by non-random networks, the matching function depends on whole sets rather than just the sizes of the two sides of the market. For less rich-random network-structures it depends on the sizes of the two sides and a few structural parameters. Structures characterized by greater asymmetries reduce the matching function's efficacy, while denser structures can have ambiguous effects on it. For the special case of the Erdös-Rényi network, we show that the way the network varies with the sizes of the two sides of the market determines if the matching function exhibits constant returns to scale, or even if it is of a specific functional form, such as CES.
Keywords Bocconi University, IGIER, Bramoullé
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Abstract In a linear economy, manufacturing is less costly and more profitable than remanufacturing because of reduced private costs of utilization and production. However, manufacturing also involves higher resource extraction and waste as externalized costs than remanufacturing. We use a vintage capital framework to assess technological innovations in remanufacturing and their potential benefits to society and human occupations. Our study shows that replacing manufacturing with remanufacturing technologies creates positive static and dynamic circular economy externalities. These externalities can be quantified to assess improvements in social outcomes. A smartphone remanufacturing innovation case study is presented as an illustration of the article's main ideas. Future research should investigate additional specific cases to develop a comprehensive methodology for assessing the impact of remanufacturing innovations on social outcomes. This will provide valuable insights into the broader implications of remanufacturing practices.
Keywords Manufacturing, Externalities, Occupational meaning, Circular economy, Sustainability, National accounting systems
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Abstract In this article we argue that the disruptive social implications of skill-replacing technological innovations are determined neither by human characteristics, such as "low skills" or "low cognition," nor by task characteristics, such as "routine," as it is typically assumed in the predominant economics and management science literature, but by the cybernetic characteristics of the innovations. We also propose that the negative effects of technological disruptions on human well-being cannot be fully understood without the use of a transdisciplinary approach involving cybernetics science and occupational science, and that it is urgent that policymakers look beyond their narrow effects on productivity and on the labor force, and consider instead the complexity of the interactions between cybernetic technologies and meaningful human occupations. We offer as an example the case of the fast adoption of online food delivery services and of remote work technologies during the COVID-19 pandemic. Ethical implications are derived from the arguments.
Keywords Technological disruptions, Technological innovations, Cybernetics science, Occupational science, Labor and nonlabor occupations
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Abstract In this article we argue that the disruptive social implications of skill-replacing technological innovations are determined neither by human characteristics, such as "low skills" or "low cognition," nor by task characteristics, such as "routine," as it is typically assumed in the predominant economics and management science literature, but by the cybernetic characteristics of the innovations. We also propose that the negative effects of technological disruptions on human well-being cannot be fully understood without the use of a transdisciplinary approach involving cybernetics science and occupational science, and that it is urgent that policymakers look beyond their narrow effects on productivity and on the labor force, and consider instead the complexity of the interactions between cybernetic technologies and meaningful human occupations. We offer as an example the case of the fast adoption of online food delivery services and of remote work technologies during the COVID-19 pandemic. Ethical implications are derived from the arguments.
Keywords Labor and nonlabor occupations, Occupational science, Cybernetics science, Technological innovations, Technological disruptions
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Abstract The article examines stock index price responses in Brazil, Chile and Mexico to those in the US, Spain and four European countries during three sub-periods surrounding the neoliberal reforms of the 1990s: 1988 to 1994, 1995 to 1998, and 1999 to 2004, using VAR modeling. It finds that equity markets became more interconnected as countries opened to international trade and capital flows, and that there was an increasing impact of Spain on Latin American equity markets. Stronger economic linkages (more trade and foreign direct investment) between Spain and these countries, specially in Brazil, seem to explain increased equity markets interconnectedness.
Keywords VAR modeling, Stock markets interdependence, Spain, Latin America, Emerging markets
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Abstract Several representativeness issues affect the available data sources in studying populations' income distributions. High-income under-reporting and non-response issues have been evidenced to be particularly significant in the literature, due to their consequence in underestimating income growth and inequality. This paper bridges several past parametric modelling attempts to account for high-income data issues in making parametric inference on income distributions at the population level. A unified parametric framework integrating parametric income distribution models and popular data replacing and reweighting corrections is developped. To exploit this framework for empirical analysis, an Approximate Bayesian Computation approach is developped. This approach updates prior beliefs on the population income distribution and the high-income data issues pressumably affecting the available data by attempting to reproduce the observed income distribution under simulations from the parametric model. Applications on simulated and EU-SILC data illustrate the performance of the approach in studying population-level mean incomes and inequality from data potentially affected by these high-income issues.
Keywords Missing rich, GB2, Bayesian inference
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Abstract Recent empirical analysis of income distributions are often limited by the exclusive availability of data in a grouped format. This data format is made particularly restrictive by a lack of information on the underlying grouping mechanism and sampling variability of the grouped-data statistics it contains. These restrictions often result in the unavailability of an analytical parametric likelihood function exploiting all information available in the grouped data. Building on recent methods for inference on parametric income distributions for this type of data, this paper explores a new Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) approach. ABC overcomes the restrictions posed by grouped data for Bayesian inference through a non-parametric approximation of the likelihood function exploiting simulated data from the income distribution model. Empirical applications of the proposed ABC method in both simulated and World Bank's PovCalNet data illustrate the performance and suitability of the method for the typical formats of grouped data on incomes.
Keywords GB2 C11, C63, C18, Grouped data Bayesian inference Generalized Lorenz curve GB2 C11 C18 C63, GB2, Generalized Lorenz curve, Bayesian inference, Grouped data
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Abstract As physics provides the equations of motion of a body, this paper formulates, for the first time, at the conceptual and mathematical levels, the inequations of motion of an individual seeking to meet his needs and quasi needs in an adaptive (not myopic) way. Successful (failed) dynamics perform a succession of moves, which are, at once, satisficing and worthwhile (free from too many sacrifices), or not. They approach or reach desires (fall in traps). They balance the desired speed of approach to a desired end (a distal promotion goal) with the size of the required immediate sacrifices to go fast (a proximal prevention goal). Therefore, each period, need/quasi need satisfaction success requires enough self control to be able to make, in the long run, sufficient progress in need/quasi need satisfaction without enduring, in the short run, too big sacrifices. A simple example (lose or gain weight) shows that the size of successful moves must be not too small and not too long. A second paper will solve this problem, using variational principles and inexact optimizing algorithms in mathematics. This strong multidisciplinary perspective refers to a recent mathematical model to psychology: the variational rationality theory of human life stay and change dynamics.
Keywords Need satisfaction, Speed of progress, Sacrifices, DYNAMICAL SYSTEM, Variational rationality
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Abstract We investigate the role of ENSO climate patterns on global economic conditions. The estimated model is based on a rich and novel monthly dataset for 20 economies, capturing 80.2% of global output (based on 2021 IMF data) over the period 1999:01 to 2022:03. The empirical evidence from an estimated global vector autoregression with local projections (GFAVLP) model links an El Niño (EN) shock with higher output and inflation, corresponding with lower global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU). While a shock to the world oil and food price is inflationary, a food price shock leads to elevated GEPU, more so during a LN shock. A main finding is that an increase of the food price can be a source of global vulnerability. The findings indicate that the weather shock impact on global economic conditions is dependent on the climate state. Our result undermines existing studies connecting climate change and economic damage via statistical approach.
Keywords Weather, Oil and Food Prices, Global macroeconometric modeling, Economic policy uncertainty
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Abstract This paper provides a general and formalized theory of self-regulation success and failures as an application of the recent Variational rationality approach of stay and change human dynamics (Soubeyran, 2009, 2010, 2021.a,b,c,d). For concreteness purposes, it starts with an example in psychology: how to gain or to lose weight ? It ends with a general, conceptual, dynamical and computable formulation of self-regulation and goal pursuit in the context of variational principles and adaptive optimizing algorithms in mathematics.
Keywords Variational rationality, Self regulation, Variational principles, Adaptive optimizing algorithms
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