Gilles Dufrénot

  • Faculty

Château Lafarge
Route des Milles
13290 Les Milles
Aix-Marseille University
Faculty of Economics and Management
Research themes:
Development economics
University of Paris 12
Les pauvres vont-ils révolutionner le XXIe siècle ? : transcender le capitalisme, Gilles Dufrénot, Coup De Gueule Et Engagement, 2018-05, 488 pages, ATLANDE, 2018

Selon l'auteur, professeur d'économie à l'Université d'Aix-Marseille, le statut des pauvres a évolué. Longtemps oubliés du capitalisme, ils seraient devenus des piliers du profit marchand. De cette relation entre deux entités contradictoires émerge un questionnement sur les fondements et l'avenir du système économique capitaliste.

A model of fiscal dominance under the “Reinhart Conjecture”, Gilles Dufrénot, Fredj Jawadi and Guillaume A. Khayat, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Volume 93, Issue Special Issue, pp. 332-345, 2018

This paper proposes some simple models where the central bank trades off between stabilizing the business cycle and targeting inflation to a level that stabilizes the public debt ratio. We show that in a closed economy fiscal dominance does not necessarily imply hyperinflation. Moreover, in an open economy it is successful in lowering debt ratios when output is reactive enough to unconventional monetary policy and when the expectations of future inflation are well anchored to the debt-stabilization inflation target. We show that the dynamics of both inflation and public debt ratio are described by first-difference equations with time varying coefficients. We provide some conditions for the asymptotic solutions of the long-run steady states. In particular, we define two regimes of respectively strong and weak fiscal dominance, depending upon whether or not the central bank's action ensures both the sustainability and the speed of convergence of debt to its long-term level.

Inflation et macroéconomie dans la globalisation, Michel Aglietta, Gilles Dufrénot and Anne Faivre, In: L'économie Mondiale 2019, 2018-09, pp. 37-52, La Découverte, 2018

Depuis au moins deux décennies, les économies des pays industrialisés connaissent une décélération tendancielle de l’inflation ainsi qu’un écrasement des cycles de l’inflation. Ces phénomènes sont le résultat de plusieurs facteurs d’ordre structurel.Le premier est l’atténuation des déterminants nationaux de l’inflation. Elle se traduit par une moindre réactivité de l’inflation aux tensions du marché...

Sovereign debt in emerging market countries: not all of them are serial defaulters, Gilles Dufrénot and Anne-Charlotte Paret, Applied Economics, Volume 50, Issue 59, pp. 6406-6443, 2018

Avoiding to assign emerging market countries a ‘typical’ behaviour, this article considers the heterogeneity across them and through time to predict their sovereign default episodes. Moreover, it focuses on the imbalance between defaulted debt and GDP. For the first time, we use a panel nonlinear regime-switching model whose explanatory factors have a different impact on sovereign default, depending on the regime the country belongs to. We mitigate some common views of the literature (in particular the ‘serial default’ theory) and identify countries deserving to be monitored carefully, because of a higher exposure to sovereign default risk.Abbreviation: CRAG : Credit Rating Assessment Group; EMBI: Emerging Market Bond Index; FSI: Financial Stress Index; GDP: Gross Domestic Product; GFC: Global Financial Cycle; GTD: Gonzalez, Teräsvirta, and V. Dijk; IMF: International Monetary Fund; LM: Lagrange Multiplier; PSTR: Panel Smooth Transition Regression; PTR: Panel Threshold Regression; STAR: Smooth Transition Auto Regressive model; US: United States; VIX: Volatility Index

Introduction: recent developments of switching models for financial data, Gilles Dufrénot and Fredj Jawadi, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, Volume 21, Issue 1, pp. 1-2, 2017