Gilles Dufrénot

  • Faculty

Château Lafarge
Route des Milles
13290 Les Milles
Phone: +33 (0) 413 94 20 11
Aix-Marseille University
Faculty of Economics and Management
Research themes:
Development economics
University of Paris 12
Monetary Policy Switching in the Euro Area and Multiple Steady States: An Empirical Investigation, Gilles Dufrénot and Guillaume A. Khayat, Macroeconomic Dynamics, Volume 21, Issue 05, pp. 1175-1188, 2017

This paper investigates, in the case of the euro area, the standard assumption that the liquidity trap steady state, which arises from the existence of the zero lower bound on the nominal interest rate, is locally unstable. We show that the policy function of the European Central Bank (ECB) is described by a nonlinear Taylor rule. Then, using our estimations, we show that around the liquidity trap steady state the equilibrium is locally determinate for most plausible parameter values. Finally, we find that an inflation shock is more efficient than a demand shock to escape the liquidity trap steady state.

Austérité budgétaire : remède ou poison ? La zone euro à l'épreuve de la crise, Marcel Aloy, Gilles Dufrénot, Anne Péguin-Feissolle and Michel Aglietta, 2017-10, 150 pages, ATLANDE, 2017

Alors que les politiques d'austérité et les réformes budgétaires décidées par la zone euro ont un impact de plus en plus perceptible sur les millions de citoyens européens, ce livre tente d'offrir une réponse aux questionnements qui traversent l'opinion publique. Au-delà d'un état des lieux de la zone euro, ce livre interroge la pertinence des choix d austérité et pose la question des ajustements à mettre en oeuvre dans une union monétaire entre pays hétérogènes.

Advances and challenges in decision-making, monetary policy and financial markets, Gilles Dufrénot and Fredj Jawadi, Economic Modelling, Volume 52, Issue Part A, pp. 1-2, 2016

This note provides an overview on recent theoretical and empirical developments in decision-making under uncertainty, monetary policy and financial markets. It introduces in particular a special issue that contains a selection of papers presented at the third International Symposium in Computational Economics and Finance (ISCEF) in April 2014 in Paris (www.iscef.com). The papers, both theoretical and empirical, discuss issues that improve our understanding of how computational tools can be used to facilitate our understanding of the agents' behaviors and policies.

Tax evasion, tax corruption and stochastic growth, Fred Célimène, Gilles Dufrénot, Gisèle Mophou and Gaston N'Guérékata, Economic Modelling, Volume 52, Issue Part A, pp. 251-258, 2016

This paper presents a continuous time stochastic growth model to study the effects of tax evasion and tax corruption on the level and volatility of private investment and public spending that are both factors of growth. The model highlights several channels through which the mean and volatility of these variables are affected. We first stress the role of equity markets, showing that the evasion outcome for the private sector is not necessarily viewed as a burden. Equity market performs here have the same role as a policy of tax exemption. In societies in which the share of private investment in percentage of GDP is growing, in which tax cheaters usually choose to shelter the proceeds of their illegal activities from the official financial institutions, and in which the productivity of public spending is often low, tax evasion and tax corruption may contribute to the development of private capital if people find an opportunity to invest the proceeds of their illegal activities in equity markets.

Macroeconomic imbalances, financial stress and fiscal vulnerability in the euro area before the debt crises: A market view, Gilles Dufrénot, Karine Gente and Frédia Monsia, Journal of International Money and Finance, Volume 67, Issue C, pp. 123-146, 2016

This paper tries to identify the macro-financial imbalances that exposed the euro area countries to fiscal stress before the outbreak of the European debt crises. Contrary to conventional wisdom that interprets fiscal stress in terms of fiscal sustainability, we focus on short-term fiscal vulnerability as reflected by the conditions of debt refinancing in the sovereign bond markets. We find that market-based indicators capturing risk perceptions of sovereign debts have been influenced by the indicators defined in the European Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure (MIP) and by variables of financial vulnerability. When pricing the risk of sovereign bonds, the holders of government debts take into account, not only the macroeconomic imbalances, but also factors such as banking distress, corporate bond risk, liquidity risks in the interbank market or the volatility of stock prices.