Gilles Dufrénot: gilles.dufrenot[at]sciencespo-aix.fr
Kiyotaka Sato: sato[at]ynu.ac.jp
While advanced economies graduated from industrialization by the 1970s and now under servicification, some worry that premature de-industrialization in developing economies may decelerate their economic development (e.g. Rodrik 2016). Or can they leap-frog industrialization? Particularly we focus on the relationship between productivity growth and industrial structural transformation in the global context. We first decompose/analyze changes in industrial structures through demand (income elasticities and export ratios) and supply (productivity growth) channels in more than three (i.e. agriculture, manufacturing and service) multiple-sector settings (Comin et al. 2021, Kohsaka 2020 and Sposi et al. 2021). We use the long run panel database such as KLEMS covering countries with available data. Second, looking into servicification processes or changing I-O relationships among sectors, we examine how de-industrialization transforms industries just like industrialization transformed agriculture. We use the global I-O database such as WIOD. Third, based on the above scrutiny, we assess the validity of export-led industrialization as developing strategies and provide implications for the way they could leap-frog traditional industrialization. Throughout, we carefully take account of varieties of not only individual, but regional and other heterogeneities among countries.