Erica Perego

Thematic seminars
Macro and labor market seminar

Erica Perego

CEPII
World interest rates and macroeconomic adjustments in developing commodity producing countries
Joint with
Vincent Bodart, François Courtoy
Venue

MEGA Salle Carine Nourry

MEGA - Salle Carine Nourry

Maison de l'économie et de la gestion d'Aix
424 chemin du viaduc
13080 Aix-en-Provence

Date(s)
Thursday, January 19 2023| 12:30pm to 1:30pm
Contact(s)

Andreas Dibiasi: andreas.dibiasi[at]univ-amu.fr
Céline Poilly: celine.poilly[at]univ-amu.fr

Abstract

With commodities becoming international financial securities, commodity prices are affected by the international financial cycle. With this evidence in mind, this paper reconsiders the macroeconomic adjustment of developing commodity-exporting countries to changes in world interest rates. We proceed by building a model of a small open economy that produces a non-tradable good and a storable tradable commodity. The difference with standard models of small open economies lies in the endogenous response of commodity prices which -due to commodity storage- adjust to variations in international interest rates. We find that the endogenous response of commodity prices amplifies the reaction of commodity exporting countries to international monetary shocks. This suggests that commodity exporting countries are more vulnerable to unfavourable international monetary disturbances than other small open economies. In particular, because of the existence of the commodity price channel, even those small open commodity-exporting economies that are disconnected from international financial markets can be affected by the international financial cycle.

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