University of Pittsburgh
Method of simulated moments and encompassing: Bidder collusion in timber auctions
Tuesday, January 10 2023| 2:00pm to 3:30pm
Michel Lubrano: michel.lubrano[at]univ-amu.fr
Pierre Michel: pierre.michel[at]univ-amu.fr
We propose a two-steps simulation procedure, combining the Method of Simulated Moments and encompassing, in order to investigate potential market irregularities in the absence of direct evidence. The proposed procedure is applied to the Idaho Department of Lands (IDL) timber auctions from 2004 through 2015. We find statistically significant evidence of bidder collusion with an estimate of the loss of revenue of approximately $81 million over the time period.