Jean-Michel Zakoian

Thematic seminars
big data and econometrics seminar

Jean-Michel Zakoian

CREST, Lille University
Estimation risk for the VaR of portfolios driven by semi-parametric multivariate models
Joint with
Christian Francq
Venue

VC Salle 205

Centre de la Vieille-Charité - Salle 205

Centre de la Vieille Charité
2 rue de la Charité
13002 Marseille

Date(s)
Tuesday, November 15 2016| 2:00pm to 4:00pm
Contact(s)

Sébastien Laurent: sebastien.laurent[at]univ-amu.fr

Abstract

We study the estimation risk induced by univariate and multivariate methods for evaluating the conditional Value-at-Risk (VaR) of a portfolio of assets. The composition of the portfolio can be time-varying and  the individual returns are assumed to follow a general multivariate dynamic model. Under ellipticity of the conditional distribution, we introduce in the multivariate framework a concept of VaR parameter, and we establish the asymptotic distribution of its estimator. A multivariate Filtered Historical Simulation method, which does not rely on ellipticity, is studied. We also consider two univariate approaches based on past real or reconstituted returns. We derive asymptotic confidence intervals for the conditional VaR, which allow to quantify simultaneously the market and estimation risks. Potential usefulness, feasibility and drawbacks of the different univariate and multivariate approaches are illustrated via Monte-Carlo experiments and an empirical study based on stock returns.