Prospective Toolkit to Global and Regional dynamics of trade, FDI and remittancesReportCéline Gimet, 2021
Unconventional economic policies and sentiment: An international assessmentJournal articleMarie-Hélène Gagnon and Céline Gimet, The World Economy, Volume 43, Issue 6, pp. 1544-1591, 2020

This paper estimates, using Bayesian and global VARs, the spillover effects of unconventional fiscal and monetary policies implemented in the United States and in the Eurozone during the last decade. Consumer confidence and investor sentiment indicators are introduced in the models in order to highlight the signalling channel in the responses to economic policy innovations in times of crisis. Our results reveal that consumer and investor perceptions of innovative economic measures are relevant to study the pass-through of economic policies to the real sector in times of crisis and zero lower bound interest rates. In particular, the signalling channel plays an important role in successful unconventional economic policies. Moreover, if unconventional economic policies have an impact abroad, the effects are similar to those measured in the domestic country/region. Consequently, coordination and transparency are a prerequisite for ensuring short-term growth after a global financial crisis.

Financialization and the macroeconomy. Theory and empirical evidenceJournal articleCéline Gimet, Thomas Lagoarde-Segot and Luis Reyes-Ortiz, Economic Modelling, Volume 81, pp. 89-110, 2019

This paper sheds light on the macroeconomic impact of financialization in the banking sector. We develop a new stock-flow consistent model, which reveals that excessive leverage increases financial fragility, lowers wages, and slows down real sector investment and GDP growth. Using a panel of 29 high income countries, we then construct indicators of banking financialization and investigate the impact of the latter on the wage share, gross capital formation and GDP growth, using a Bayesian structural VAR framework, as well as a set of fixed effect regressions. Our results highlight that financialization has had a detrimental impact on real sector growth. Finally, we discuss the implications of our results to propose reforms to the international financial system.

Climate and output variability in the Euro-Mediterranean region, 1950-2000Journal articleJean-Pascal Bassino, Céline Gimet and Stephane Quefelec, Economics Bulletin, Volume 38, Issue 4, pp. 1811-1822, 2018

Despite the large literature on the link between climate evolution and country economic performance, the specific question of the effects of climatic changes via the agricultural sector broken down by annual seasons in the Euro-Mediterranean region, which is considered as a hotspot of climate change, remains largely understudied. This paper investigates both the incidences of seasonal rainfall and temperature variations on GDP from an historical perspective and the impact of climate anomalies on cereal output. Our results point to the fact that climate shocks affect significantly the GDP of Euro-Mediterranean countries specialized in the agricultural production, in particular during winter and spring. In these seasons, the impacts of climate anomalies are strong on cereal output in southern and eastern Mediterranean countries. These results underline the fact that agriculture is one of the main channels of the influence of climate change on GDP in this region. Crop diversification could be part of the response for enhancing resilience of the entire economy while preserving food security objectives.

Les crises financièresBook chapterAndré Cartapanis and Céline Gimet, In: MBA Finance, J-M Rocchi (Eds.), 2017-06, pp. 853-882, Eyrolles, 2017
Increase in home bias in the Eurozone debt crisis: The role of domestic shocksJournal articleCamille Cornand, Pauline Gandré and Céline Gimet, Economic Modelling, Volume 53, pp. 445-469, 2016

One of the most striking consequences of the recent episode of sovereign debt market stress in the Eurozone has been the increase in the share of public debt held by the domestic sector in fragile economies. However, the causes and potential consequences of this increase were only given scarce attention in the literature on the Euro area sovereign debt crisis. In order to fill this gap, we first determine the shocks that impact the variation in the share of sovereign debt held at home in an SVAR model on a sample of Eurozone countries between 2002 and 2014, distinguishing between external and domestic shocks. Thanks to several alternative tests, we show that home bias in sovereign debt responds positively to country-specific fundamentals and expectation shocks but we find no evidence that the increase in home bias is destabilizing per se in the short-run. Second, a stylized theoretical model backed by the empirical results predicts that the consequences for sovereign debt crisis depend on the relative impact of domestic initial destabilizing shocks and increased home bias. The analysis suggests that an increase in home bias in times of sovereign debt stress, despite reflecting deteriorating fiscal conditions, may make default less likely.

What Drives European Football Clubs’ Stock Returns and Volatility?Journal articleCéline Gimet and Sandra Montchaud, International Journal of the Economics of Business, Volume 23, Issue 3, pp. 351-390, 2016

The article studies the main determinants of European football clubs’ stock returns and volatility. A panel-data analysis of a sample of 24 European football clubs was conducted to test the influence of several variables, based on a matrix of internal/external and real/financial dimensions, on both stock returns and their volatility. The results show that clubs’ stock returns are influenced by the real and financial context and by a set of internal variables such as profit considered as a reflection of accounting discipline, capitalization as an indicator of size and stadium attendance as a proxy indicator of reputation. The volatility of stock returns seems particularly vulnerable to the overall instability on stock markets and dependent on clubs’ profit and net players’ transfers and, to a lesser extent, on sporting outcomes.

Progreso social y producción mundializada : el caso del sector de los textiles y el vestidoJournal articleCéline Gimet, Revista internacional del trabajo, Volume 134, Issue 3, pp. 331-356, 2015

La especialización vertical generada por la fragmentación de la producción en redes mundiales no solo está motivada por la ventaja comparativa, sino también por las estrategias de deslocalización de las empresas líderes, que determinan el papel y el poder negociador de los productores locales. Este estudio examina las consecuencias de tal especialización en los textiles y el vestido en 26 países con abundante mano de obra de 1990 a 2007. Las regresiones de efectos fijos con datos de panel revelan que el sector no siempre gana con la integración comercial internacional: se observa una correlación negativa entre la especialización vertical y los salarios reales relativos.

Social upgrading in globalized production: The case of the textile and clothing industryJournal articleCéline Gimet, Bernard Guilhon and Nathalie Roux, International Labour Review, Volume 154, Issue 3, pp. 303-327, 2015

Vertical specialization generated by the international fragmentation of production within global networks is driven not only by comparative advantage, but also by the locational decisions of lead firms which determine the role and bargaining power of local producers in their value chain. This study examines the consequences of such specialization in textiles and clothing for 26 labour-abundant countries from 1990 to 2007. Fixed effects regressions based on panel data reveal that the industry does not always reap the benefits of the resulting international trade integration. Rather, the authors observe a negative relationship between vertical specialization and relative real wages in the textile and clothing industry.

Production mondialisée et progrès social: le cas du textile et de l'habillementJournal articleCéline Gimet, Bernard Guilhon and Nathalie Roux, Revue internationale du Travail, Volume 154, Issue 3, pp. 337-362, 2015

Résumé La fragmentation de la production au sein de réseaux mondiaux n'obéit pas seulement à l'avantage comparatif, mais aussi aux décisions de localisation des entreprises dominantes en fonction de la capacité de négociation des producteurs locaux et du rôle qu'elles leur assignent dans la chaîne de production. Les auteurs examinent les conséquences de cette spécialisation dans le textile et l'habillement, pour vingt-six pays où l'offre de main-d'œuvre est abondante, sur la période 1990–2007. L'étude économétrique montre que le secteur ne tire pas toujours bénéfice de l'intégration commerciale: on observe plutôt une association négative entre spécialisation verticale et salaires réels.

One size may not fit all: Financial fragmentation and European monetary policiesJournal articleCéline Gimet and Marie-Hélène Gagnon, Review of International Economics, Forthcoming

This article investigates the impact of European Central Bank policies on credits considering financial and banking fragmentation. Using European data from the past decade, we estimate SVAR models to analyze the regional impact of conventional and unconventional measures on price and volume indicators of fragmentation. The risk-taking channel is studied using GVAR models to document the national consequences of this fragmentation. We find that unconventional measures increase credit in peripheral countries. Monetary policies alleviate fragmentation, but mostly in terms of price dispersion rather than credit volume. Finally, unconventional measures imply a rebalancing of European bank assets in favor of foreign currency denominated-assets.