Miriam Teschl

Faculty ,  EHESS

Public economics
Status
Assistant professor
Research domain(s)
Economic philosophy
Contact
miriam.teschl[at]ehess.fr
Address

AMU - AMSE
5-9 Boulevard Maurice Bourdet, CS 50498
​13205 Marseille Cedex 1

Website
http://univie.academia.edu/MiriamTeschl
Abstract This paper tests experimentally how preferences for redistribution of members of the general public depend on how money is earned. An experiment was designed to form of “microparticipatory-democracy”where redistribution from winners to losers is decided through a sequential strategy-proof majority voting procedure. Based on five distributive justice theories, we elicit people’s preferences for redistribution when their earnings come from four factors: effort, social circumstances, brute luck, and option luck. In the aggregate, our results show that a relative majority of people agree with Dworkin’s cut, namely, to compensate for social circumstances and brute luck but not effort and option luck. Participants with bad outcomes are more likely to engage in a self-serving vote, but on average, the dominant concern in voting remains people’s fairness view. The knowledge of the distribution of earnings and petition for equality of opportunity make participants vote more in favor of redistribution.
Keywords Experiment, Responsibility, Equality of opportunity, Micro participatory-democracy, Social justice
Publication HAL Google Scholar
Abstract We provide a novel way to correct the effective reproduction number for the time-varying amount of tests, using the acceleration index (Baunez et al., 2021) as a simple measure of viral spread dynamics. Not correcting results in the reproduction number being a biased estimate of viral acceleration and we provide a formal decomposition of the resulting bias, involving the useful notions of test and infectivity intensities. When applied to French data for the COVID-19 pandemic (May 13, 2020-October 26, 2022), our decomposition shows that the reproduction number, when considered alone, characteristically underestimates the resurgence of the pandemic, compared to the acceleration index which accounts for the time-varying volume of tests. Because the acceleration index aggregates all relevant information and captures in real time the sizable time variation featured by viral circulation, it is a more parsimonious indicator to track the dynamics of an infectious disease outbreak in real time, compared to the equivalent alternative which would combine the reproduction number with the test and infectivity intensities.
Keywords Virus testing, Pandemics, COVID 19, Public and occupational health, France, Acceleration, Diagnostic medicine, Public policy
Publication HAL Google Scholar
Abstract BACKGROUND: Meta-analyses have shown that preexisting mental disorders may increase serious Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) outcomes, especially mortality. However, most studies were conducted during the first months of the pandemic, were inconclusive for several categories of mental disorders, and not fully controlled for potential confounders. Our study objectives were to assess independent associations between various categories of mental disorders and COVID-19-related mortality in a nationwide sample of COVID-19 inpatients discharged over 18 months and the potential role of salvage therapy triage to explain these associations. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We analysed a nationwide retrospective cohort of all adult inpatients discharged with symptomatic COVID-19 between February 24, 2020 and August 28, 2021 in mainland France. The primary exposure was preexisting mental disorders assessed from all discharge information recorded over the last 9 years (dementia, depression, anxiety disorders, schizophrenia, alcohol use disorders, opioid use disorders, Down syndrome, other learning disabilities, and other disorder requiring psychiatric ward admission). The main outcomes were all-cause mortality and access to salvage therapy (intensive-care unit admission or life-saving respiratory support) assessed at 120 days after recorded COVID-19 diagnosis at hospital. Independent associations were analysed in multivariate logistic models. Of 465,750 inpatients with symptomatic COVID-19, 153,870 (33.0%) were recorded with a history of mental disorders. Almost all categories of mental disorders were independently associated with higher mortality risks (except opioid use disorders) and lower salvage therapy rates (except opioid use disorders and Down syndrome). After taking into account the mortality risk predicted at baseline from patient vulnerability (including older age and severe somatic comorbidities), excess mortality risks due to caseload surges in hospitals were +5.0% (95% confidence interval (CI), 4.7 to 5.2) in patients without mental disorders (for a predicted risk of 13.3% [95% CI, 13.2 to 13.4] at baseline) and significantly higher in patients with mental disorders (+9.3% [95% CI, 8.9 to 9.8] for a predicted risk of 21.2% [95% CI, 21.0 to 21.4] at baseline). In contrast, salvage therapy rates were significantly higher than expected in patients without mental disorders (+4.2% [95% CI, 3.8 to 4.5]) and lower in patients with mental disorders (-4.1% [95% CI, -4.4; -3.7]). The main limitations of our study point to the assessment of COVID-19-related mortality at 120 days and potential coding bias of medical information recorded in hospital claims data, although the main study findings were consistently reproduced in multiple sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 patients with mental disorders had lower odds of accessing salvage therapy, suggesting that life-saving measures at French hospitals were disproportionately denied to patients with mental disorders in this exceptional context.
Publication HAL Google Scholar
Abstract We study, in a finite setting, the problem of Pareto rationalizability of choice functions by means of a preference profile that is single-peaked with respect to an exogenously given linear order over the alternatives. This problem requires a new condition to be added to those that characterize Pareto rationalizability in the general domain of orders (Moulin (1985)). This new condition appeals to the existence of a central range of options such that the choice function excludes alternatives which are distant from that range.
Keywords Single-peaked preferences, Pareto rationalizability
Publication HAL Google Scholar
Abstract Comment mesurer le plus finement possible l'accélération ou la décélération d'une épidémie ?
HAL Google Scholar
Abstract An acceleration index is proposed as a novel indicator to track the dynamics of COVID-19 in real-time. Using data on cases and tests in France for the period between the first and second lock-downs-May 13 to October 25, 2020-our acceleration index shows that the pandemic resurgence can be dated to begin around July 7. It uncovers that the pandemic acceleration was stronger than national average for the [59-68] and especially the 69 and older age groups since early September, the latter being associated with the strongest acceleration index, as of October 25. In contrast, acceleration among the [19-28] age group was the lowest and is about half that of the [69-78]. In addition, we propose an algorithm to allocate tests among French "dé partements" (roughly counties), based on both the acceleration index and the feedback effect of testing. Our acceleration-based allocation differs from the actual distribution over French territories, which is population-based. We argue that both our acceleration index and our allocation algorithm are useful tools to guide public health policies as France might possibly enter a third lock-down period with indeterminate duration.
Keywords France, Sub-national allocation of tests, Real-time Analysis, Acceleration Index, Indicator of epidemic dynamics, COVID-19
Publication HAL Google Scholar
Abstract La recherche en sciences humaines et sociales (SHS), à qui l’on pose régulièrement la question de son « utilité », a été massivement mobilisée dans la première partie de l’année 2020, tant par les médias et les institutions. Elle s’est montrée d’une grande réactivité, en adaptant ses calendriers et ses objectifs, en modifiant ses formats d’interventions (wébinaires, cours en distanciel). Chercheuses et chercheurs, enseignant(e)s-chercheurs ont été présents, et ce malgré des inégalités générées par le confinement dans le travail de recherche, notamment en termes de genre. Le présent travail a pour ambition de proposer à son lecteur une analyse mobilisant les travaux des SHS dans leur ensemble. Sans prétendre à l’exhaustivité, il tisse les fils, à travers les questions qu’il aborde, d’une discipline à une autre, composant un ensemble dans lequel les SHS entrent en résonance les unes avec les autres, déploient leur complémentarité, et créent une analyse commune, qu’elles relèvent plutôt des sciences sociales ou des humanités. Il a pour objectif de rendre manifeste un capital scientifique des SHS en tant que telles, pour aborder les différents questionnements que suscite la pandémie de Covid-19. La recherche actuelle en SHS sur la pandémie, sa gestion politique, et ses enjeux, ne s’élabore pas ex nihilo. Tout en prenant la mesure de la spécificité des temps présents, elle s’appuie sur un ensemble de cadres théoriques, de méthodes, d’analyses élaborés dans d’autres contextes, remobilisés, réactualisés, enrichis à la lumière des problématiques associées à la pandémie de Covid 19. Par ailleurs, le parti-pris de ce travail a été de tenir compte d’emblée de la dimension mondiale de la pandémie, et de ne pas s’en tenir à la situation française. Ainsi, plusieurs contextes nationaux, voire continentaux sont explorés sur tel ou tel point et la dimension mondiale de la pandémie y est prise en compte en tant que telle. Enfin, ce document s’intéresse aussi à la manière même dont les sciences humaines et sociales se sont mobilisées, en France, dans le contexte de la pandémie de Covid 19, aux formes collaboratives, aux pratiques pluridisciplinaires particulièrement adoptées face à cette pandémie. Il se structure en cinq parties : la première porte sur la manière dont les SHS font de la crise une question et un objet de connaissance (A – Du cadrage de la crise dans l’espace public à la crise comme objet de connaissance - l’exemple de la France). La seconde aborde un point saillant des analyses élaborées au cours des derniers mois, qui envisagent la pandémie comme un révélateur, voire un amplificateur d’enjeux pré-existants (B). Puis, la troisième partie s’intéresse aux sociétés et aux gouvernements confrontés à la pandémie (C), autrement dit aux formes de la gestion de la crise par le pouvoir politique, à la mobilisation des sciences et à l’exercice du pouvoir, ainsi qu’aux mesures prises et aux attitudes des populations au regard de ces mesures. La quatrième partie présente la façon dont le temps de la pandémie a été traversé de questionnements pour le futur, questionnements qui à leur tour impriment des orientations pour la recherche en SHS (D. Se réinventer en temps de pandémie). Enfin, la cinquième et dernière partie invite le lecteur à découvrir comment les SHS se sont mobilisées en temps de pandémie, comment elles ont collaboré et entrepris de documenter à chaud la crise sanitaire tout en acceptant de voir se renouveler questions, objets, méthodes sous l’effet de cette crise (E. Quand la crise invite aux collaborations et à une réflexion sur le « transfert » des connaissances).
HAL Google Scholar
Abstract Tests are crucial to know about the number of people who have fallen ill with COVID-19 and to understand in real-time whether the dynamics of the pandemic is accelerating or decelerating. But tests are a scarce resource in many countries. The key but still open question is thus how to allocate tests across sub-national levels. We provide a data-driven and operational criterion to allocate tests efficiently across regions or provinces, with the view to maximize detection of people who have been infected. We apply our criterion to Italian regions and compute the shares of tests that should go to each region, which are shown to differ significantly from the actual distribution.
Keywords COVID-19, Italy, Acceleration of harm, Deceleration of harm, Epidemic dynamics, Efficiency criterion, Sub-national allocation of tests, Real-time Analysis
HAL Google Scholar
Keywords Economie quantitative
HAL Google Scholar
Abstract The interview was conducted by Constanze Binder (CB) Miriam Teschl (MT) and Yongsheng Xu (YX) via email over a period of a few weeks in the Summer/Fall of 2014.
Keywords Economie quantitative
HAL Google Scholar
Abstract Following Nick Baigent’s argument that one must go “behind the veil of preference” (Baigent, Jpn Econ Rev 46(1):88–101, 1995) to be able to develop a satisfactory theory of rational behaviour, we propose to analyse potential intrapersonal conflicts caused by different reasons, goals or motivations to choose one option over another, which may make the development of a coherent preference impossible. We do this by presenting an extensive, but certainly not exhaustive overview of psychological research on intrapersonal conflict, its influence on preference reversal (and hence on incoherent behaviour), on psychological well-being and on motivational and behavioural changes over time. We then briefly describe our own theory of choice under conflicting motivations (Arlegi and Teschl, Working Papers of the Department of Economics DT 1208, Public University of Navarre, 2012), which is a first attempt at putting psychological insights into intrapersonal conflict into an axiomatic economic context.
Keywords Economie quantitative
HAL Google Scholar
Abstract The papers in this volume explore various issues relating to theories of individual and collective choice, and theories of social welfare. The topics include individual and collective rationality, motivation and intention in economics, coercion, public goods, climate change, and voting theory. The book offers an excellent overview over latest research in these fields.
Keywords Economie quantitative
Publication HAL Google Scholar
Abstract The log-normal distribution is convenient for modelling the income distribution, and it offers an analytical expression for most inequality indices that depends only on the shape parameter of the associated Lorenz curve. A decomposable inequality index can be implemented in the framework of a finite mixture of log-normal distributions so that overall inequality can be composed into within-subgroup components. Using a Bayesian approach and a Gibbs sampler, a Rao-Blackwellization can improve inference results on decomposable income inequality indices. The very nature of the economic question can provide prior information so as to distinguish between the income groups and construct an asymmetric prior density which can reduce label switching. Data from the UK Family Expenditure Survey (FES) (1979 to 1996) are used in an extended empirical application.
Keywords Economie quantitative
HAL Google Scholar
Abstract We provide a novel way to correct the effective reproduction number for the time-varying amount of tests, using the acceleration index (Baunez et al., 2021) as a simple measure of viral spread dynamics. Not correcting results in the reproduction number being a biased estimate of viral acceleration and we provide a formal decomposition of the resulting bias, involving the useful notions of test and infectivity intensities. When applied to French data for the COVID-19 pandemic (May 13, 2020 - October 26, 2022), our decomposition shows that the reproduction number, when considered alone, characteristically underestimates the resurgence of the pandemic, compared to the acceleration index which accounts for the time-varying volume of tests. Because the acceleration index aggregates all relevant information and captures in real time the sizable time variation featured by viral circulation, it is a more parsimonious indicator to track the dynamics of an infectious disease outbreak in real time, compared to the equivalent alternative which would combine the reproduction number with the test and infectivity intensities
Keywords COVID-19, Reproduction Number, TESTING, Acceleration Index, Real-time Analysis, France
Download HAL Google Scholar
Abstract Objectives: This note provides an assessment of COVID-19 acceleration among groups with different vaccine status in France. Methods: We assess viral acceleration using a novel indicator introduced in Baunez et al. (2021). The acceleration index relates the percentage change of tests that have been performed on a given day to the percentage change in the associated positive cases that same day. We compare viral acceleration among vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals in France over the period May 31st-August 29, 2021. Results: Once the state of the epidemic within each groups is accounted for, it turns out that viral acceleration has since mid-July converged to similar levels among vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals in France, even though viral speed is larger for the latter group compared to the former. Conclusion: Our results call for an increasing testing effort for both vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals, in view of the fact that viral circulation is currently accelerating at similar levels for both groups in France.
Keywords COVID-19, Vaccine Status, Viral Acceleration, Acceleration Index, France
Download HAL Google Scholar
Abstract An acceleration index is proposed as a novel indicator to track the dynamics of COVID-19 in real-time. Using data on cases and tests in France for the period between the first and second lock-downs-May 13 to October 25, 2020-our acceleration index shows that the pandemic resurgence can be dated to begin around July 7. It uncovers that the pandemic acceleration was stronger than national average for the [59-68] and especially the 69 and older age groups since early September, the latter being associated with the strongest acceleration index, as of October 25. In contrast, acceleration among the [19-28] age group was the lowest and is about half that of the [69-78]. In addition, we propose an algorithm to allocate tests among French "dé partements" (roughly counties), based on both the acceleration index and the feedback effect of testing. Our acceleration-based allocation differs from the actual distribution over French territories, which is population-based. We argue that both our acceleration index and our allocation algorithm are useful tools to guide public health policies as France might possibly enter a third lock-down period with indeterminate duration.
Keywords France, Sub-national allocation of tests, Real-time Analysis, Acceleration Index, Indicator of epidemic dynamics, COVID-19
Publication Download HAL Google Scholar
Abstract Even though much has been learned about the new pathogen SARS-CoV-2 since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, a lot of uncertainty remains. In this paper we argue that what is important to know under uncertainty is whether harm accelerates and whether health policies achieve deceleration of harm. For this, we need to see cases in relation to diagnostic effort and not to look at indicators based on cases only, such as a number of widely used epidemiological indicators, including the reproduction number, do. To do so overlooks a crucial dimension, namely the fact that the best we can know about cases will depend on some welldefined strategy of diagnostic effort, such as testing in the case of COVID-19. We will present a newly developed indicator to observe harm, the acceleration index, which is essentially an elasticity of cases in relation to tests. We will discuss what efficiency of testing means and propose that the corresponding health policy goal should be to find ever fewer cases with an ever-greater diagnostic effort. Easy and low-threshold testing will also be a means to give back people’s sovereignty to lead their life in an “open” as opposed to “locked-down” society.
Keywords Uncertainty, Acceleration Index, Anti-fragility, Reproduction factor, Test strategy, Sovereignty
Download HAL Google Scholar
Abstract We show that the acceleration index, a novel indicator that measures acceleration and deceleration of viral spread (Baunez et al. 2020a,b), is essentially a test-controlled version of the reproduction number. As such it is a more accurate indicator to track the dynamics of an infectious disease outbreak in real time. We indicate a discrepancy between the acceleration index and the reproduction number, based on the infectivity and test rates and we provide a formal decomposition of this difference. When applied to French data for the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, our decomposition shows that the reproduction number consistently underestimates the resurgence of the pandemic since the summer of 2020, compared to the acceleration index which accounts for the time-varying volume of tests. Because the acceleration index aggregates all the relevant information and captures in real time the sizeable time variation featured by viral circulation, it is a sufficient statistic to track the pandemic’s propagation.
Keywords COVID-19, Reproduction Number, Lock-down, Acceleration Index, Real-time Analysis, France
Download HAL Google Scholar
Abstract This note provides an early assessment of the reinforced measures to curb the COVID-19 pandemic in France, which include a curfew of selected areas and culminate in a second COVID-19-related lock-down that started on October 30, 2020 and is still ongoing. We analyse the change in virus propagation across age groups and across départements using an acceleration index introduced in Baunez et al. (2020). We find that while the pandemic is still in the acceleration regime, acceleration decreased notably with curfew measures and this more rapidly so for the more vulnerable population group, that is, for people older than 60. Acceleration continued to decline under lock-down, but more so for the active population under 60 than for those above 60. For the youngest population aged 0 to 19, curfew measures did not reduce acceleration but lock-down does. This suggests that if health policies aim at protecting the elderly population generally more at risk to suffer severe consequences from COVID-19, curfew measures may be effective enough. However, looking at the departmental map of France, we find that curfews have not necessarily been imposed in départements where acceleration was the largest.
Keywords COVID-19, Effects of curfew and lock-down, Acceleration Index, Real-time Analysis, France
Download HAL Google Scholar
Abstract An acceleration index is proposed as a novel indicator to track the dynamics of the COVID-19 in real-time. Using French data on cases and tests for the period following the first lock-down-from May 13, 2020, onwards-our acceleration index shows that the ongoing pandemic resurgence can be dated to begin around July 7. It uncovers that the pandemic acceleration has been stronger than national average for the [59 − 68] and especially the 69 and older age groups since early September, the latter being associated with the strongest acceleration index, as of October 25. In contrast, acceleration among the [19 − 28] age group is the lowest and is about half that of the [69 − 78], as of October 25. In addition, we propose an algorithm to allocate tests among French départements, based on both the acceleration index and the feedback effect of testing. Our acceleration-based allocation differs from the actual distribution over French territories, which is population-based. We argue that both our acceleration index and our allocation algorithm are useful tools to guide public health policies as France enters a second lock-down period with indeterminate duration.
Keywords COVID-19, Indicator of epidemic dynamics, Acceleration Index, Real-time Analysis, Sub-national allocation of tests, France
Download HAL Google Scholar
Abstract Tests are crucial to know about the number of people who have fallen ill with COVID-19 and to understand in real-time whether the dynamics of the pandemic is accelerating or decelerating. But tests are a scarce resource in many countries. The key but still open question is thus how to allocate tests across sub-national levels. We provide a data-driven and operational criterion to allocate tests efficiently across regions or provinces, with the view to maximize detection of people who have been infected. We apply our criterion to Italian regions and compute the shares of tests that should go to each region, which are shown to differ significantly from the actual distribution.
Keywords COVID-19, Italy, Acceleration of harm, Deceleration of harm, Epidemic dynamics, Efficiency criterion, Sub-national allocation of tests, Real-time Analysis
Download HAL Google Scholar
Abstract Tests are crucial to know about the number of people who have fallen ill with COVID-19 and to understand in real-time whether the dynamics of the pandemic is accelerating or decelerating. But tests are a scarce resource in many countries. The key but still open question is thus how to allocate tests across sub-national levels. We provide a data-driven and operational criterion to allocate tests efficiently across regions or provinces, with the view to maximize detection of people who have been infected. We apply our criterion to Italian regions and compute the shares of tests that should go to each region, which are shown to differ significantly from the actual distribution.
Keywords Sub-national allocation of tests, Real-time Analysis, COVID-19, Epidemic dynamics, Acceleration of harm, Deceleration of harm, Italy, Efficiency criterion
Download HAL Google Scholar
Abstract The radical uncertainty around the current COVID19 pandemics requires that governments around the world should be able to track in real time not only how the virus spreads but, most importantly, what policies are effective in keeping the spread of the disease under check. To improve the quality of health decision-making, we argue that it is necessary to monitor and compare acceleration/deceleration of confirmed cases over health policy responses, across countries. To do so, we provide a simple mathematical tool to estimate the convexity/concavity of trends in epidemiological surveillance data. Had it been applied at the onset of the crisis, it would have offered more opportunities to measure the impact of the policies undertaken in different Asian countries, and to allow European and North-American governments to draw quicker lessons from these Asian experiences when making policy decisions. Our tool can be especially useful as the epidemic is currently extending to lower-income African and South American countries, some of which have weaker health systems.
Keywords Acceleration, Convexity, COVID-19, Data Dashboard, Detection of Infectious Diseases, Public Health Policy, Sensitivity
Download HAL Google Scholar