Ventelou

Publications

Inequity in access to personalized medicine in France: Evidences from analysis of geo variations in the access to molecular profiling among advanced non-small-cell lung cancer patients: Results from the IFCT Biomarkers France StudyJournal articleSamuel Kembou Nzale, William B. Weeks, L’Houcine Ouafik, Isabelle Rouquette, Michèle Beau-Faller, Antoinette Lemoine, Pierre-Paul Bringuier, Anne-Gaëlle Le Corolle Soriano, Fabrice Barlesi and Bruno Ventelou, PLoS ONE, Volume 15, Issue 7, pp. e0234387, 2020

In this article, we studied geographic variation in the use of personalized genetic testing for advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and we evaluated the relationship between genetic testing rates and local socioeconomic and ecological variables. We used data on all advanced NSCLC patients who had a genetic test between April 2012 and April 2013 in France in the frame of the IFCT Biomarqueurs-France study (n = 15814). We computed four established measures of geographic variation of the sex-adjusted rates of genetic testing utilization at the “départment” (the French territory is divided into 94 administrative units called ‘départements’) level. We also performed a spatial regression model to determine the relationship between département-level sex-adjusted rates of genetic testing utilization and economic and ecological variables. Our results are the following: (i) Overall, 46.87% lung cancer admission patients obtained genetic testing for NSCLC; département-level utilization rates varied over 3.2-fold. Measures of geographic variation indicated a relatively high degree of geographic variation. (ii) there was a statistically significant relationship between genetic testing rates and per capita supply of general practitioners, radiotherapists and surgeons (negative correlation for the latter); lower genetic testing rates were also associated with higher local poverty rates. French policymakers should pursue effort toward deprived areas to obtain equal access to personalized medicine for advanced NSCLC patients.

Simulating the progression of the COVID-19 disease in Cameroon using SIR modelsJournal articleUlrich Nguemdjo, Freeman Meno, Audric Dongfack and Bruno Ventelou, PLoS ONE, Volume 15, Issue 8, pp. e0237832, 2020

This paper analyses the evolution of COVID-19 in Cameroon over the period March 6-April 2020 using SIR models. Specifically, we 1) evaluate the basic reproduction number of the virus, 2) determine the peak of the infection and the spread-out period of the disease, and 3) simulate the interventions of public health authorities. Data used in this study is obtained from the Cameroonian Public Health Ministry. The results suggest that over the identified period, the reproduction number of COVID-19 in Cameroon is about 1.5, and the peak of the infection should have occurred at the end of May 2020 with about 7.7% of the population infected. Furthermore, the implementation of efficient public health policies could help flatten the epidemic curve.

Who bears the burden of universal health coverage? An assessment of alternative financing policies using an overlapping-generations general equilibrium modelJournal articleMohammad Abu-Zaineh, Sameera Awawda and Bruno Ventelou, Health Policy and Planning, Volume 35, Issue 7, pp. 867-877, 2020

In their quest for universal health coverage (UHC), many developing countries use alternative financing strategies including general revenues to expand health coverage to the whole population. Unless a policy adjustment is undertaken, future generations may foot the bill of the UHC. This raises the important policy questions of who bears the burden of UHC and whether the UHC-fiscal stance is sustainable in the long term. These two questions are addressed using an overlapping generations model within a general equilibrium (OLG-CGE) framework applied to Palestine. We assess and compare alternative ways of financing the UHC-ridden deficit (viz. deferred-debt, current and phased-manner finance) and their implications on fiscal sustainability and intergenerational inequalities. The policy instruments examined include direct labour-income tax and indirect consumption taxes as well as health insurance contributions. Results show that in the absence of any policy adjustment, the implementation of UHC would explode the fiscal deficit and debt-GDP ratio. This indicates that the UHC-fiscal stance is rather unsustainable in the long term, thus, calling for a policy adjustment to service the UHC debt. Among the policies we examined, a current rather than deferred-debt finance through consumption taxation emerged to be preferred over other policies in terms of its implications for both fiscal sustainability and intergenerational inequality.

Assessing the future medical cost burden for the European health systems under alternative exposure-to-risks scenariosJournal articleYevgeniy Goryakin, Sophie P. Thiébaut, Sébastien Cortaredona, Aliénor M. Lerouge, Michele Cecchini, Andrea B. Feigl and Bruno Ventelou, PLoS ONE, Marcello Montefiori (Eds.), Volume 15, Issue 9, pp. e0238565, 2020

Background:
Ageing populations and rising prevalence of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) increasingly contribute to the growing cost burden facing European healthcare systems. Few studies have attempted to quantify the future magnitude of this burden at the European level, and none of them consider the impact of potential changes in risk factor trajectories on future health expenditures.

Methods:
The new microsimulation model forecasts the impact of behavioural and metabolic risk factors on NCDs, longevity and direct healthcare costs, and shows how changes in epidemiological trends can modify those impacts. Economic burden of NCDs is modelled under three scenarios based on assumed future risk factors trends: business as usual (BAU); best case and worst case predictions (BCP and WCP).

Findings:
The direct costs of NCDs in the EU 27 countries and the UK (in constant 2014 prices) will grow under all scenarios. Between 2014 and 2050, the overall healthcare spending is expected to increase by 0.8% annually under BAU. In the all the countries, 605 billion Euros can be saved by 2050 if BCP is realized compared to the BAU, while excess spending under the WCP is forecast to be around 350 billion. Interpretation:
Although the savings realised under the BCP can be substantial, population ageing is a stronger driver of rising total healthcare expenditures in Europe compared to scenario-based changes in risk factor prevalence.

How French general practitioners respond to declining medical density: a study on prescription practices, with an insight into opioids useJournal articleJulien Silhol, Bruno Ventelou and Anna Zaytseva, The European Journal of Health Economics, Volume 21, Issue 9, pp. 1391-1398, 2020

Disparities in physicians' geographical distribution lead to highly unequal access to healthcare, which may impact quality of care in both high and low-income countries. This paper uses a 2013–2014 nationally representative survey of French general practitioners (GPs) matched with corresponding administrative data to analyze the effects of practicing in an area with weaker medical density. To avoid the endogeneity issue on physicians' choice of the location, we enriched our variable of interest, practicing in a relatively underserved area, with considering changes in medical density between 2007 and 2013, thus isolating GPs who only recently experienced a density decline (identifying assumption). We find that GPs practicing in underserved areas do shorter consultations and tend to substitute time-consuming procedures with alternatives requiring fewer human resources, especially for pain management. Results are robust to considering only GPs newly exposed to low medical density. Findings suggest a significant impact of supply-side shortages on the mix of healthcare services used to treat patients, and point to a plausible increased use of painkillers, opioids in particular.

The quest to expand the coverage of public health insurance in the occupied Palestinian territory: an assessment of feasibility and sustainability using a simulation modelling frameworkJournal articleSameera Awawda, Mohammad Abu-Zaineh and Bruno Ventelou, The Lancet, Volume 393, pp. S17, 2019

Background:
In their quest for universal health coverage (UHC), many developing countries explore alternative financing strategies to address the potential budgetary impact of health coverage expansion (for example, deferred debt versus current finance through taxation or premiums). Given the limited fiscal space, these policies may have different implications for fiscal sustainability and may worsen intergenerational inequality.

Methods:
We assessed the impact of UHC on fiscal sustainability and intergenerational inequality using an overlapping generations model within a general equilibrium framework, which we calibrate using data from the Palestinian Expenditures and Consumption Survey (PECS-2011) and the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM-2011). Fiscal sustainability is assessed using a prudent debt–GDP level of 39%. Intergenerational inequality induced by different policies is assessed by comparing the relative incremental burden (RIB) borne by each generation following the policy adjustment.

Findings:
In the absence of any policy adjustment, an ad hoc expansion of health coverage would increase the debt–GDP level to 15% above the prudent level. This indicates that the UHC fiscal stance may be financially unsustainable in the long run, therefore calling for a policy adjustment. Among the policies we examined, UHC finance through the increase of premiums (whether current or deferred) seems to be unsustainable and may further widen intergenerational inequality (RIB∈[3,6]). By contrast, current finance through indirect taxes helps to restore a prudent debt–GDP level and seems to be associated with a lower level of intergenerational inequality than deferred-debt finance through direct taxation (RIB of 1·25 and 5, respectively).

Interpretation:
Among the policy options assessed, the current indirect taxation emerged as the best policy option in terms of its impact on both fiscal sustainability and intergenerational inequalities. However, from a policy perspective, the capacity of governments to raise additional revenues might be constrained in the short-term. Under such circumstances, deferred-debt finance may be preferred—a situation in which policy makers may have to trade fiscal sustainability against intergenerational inequality.

Funding:
The A*MIDEX project (number ANR-11-IDEX-0001-02) funded by the French Government programme Investissements d'avenir, managed by the French National Research Agency (ANR).

Contributors:
SA prepared the data, conceived the framework for the study and carried out data analysis. MA-Z developed the framework for the study, carried out data analysis and wrote the Interpretation section. BV developed the framework for the study. All authors have seen and approved the final version of the Abstract for publication.

Assessing the potential outcomes of achieving the World Health Organization global non-communicable diseases targets for risk factors by 2025: is there also an economic dividend?Journal articleMarion Devaux, A. Lerouge, Bruno Ventelou, Y. Goryakin, A. Feigl, S. Vuik and M. Cecchini, Public Health, Volume 169, pp. 173-179, 2019

Objectives:
This study assesses the change in premature mortality and in morbidity under the scenario of meeting the World Health Organization (WHO) global targets for non-communicable disease (NCD) risk factors (RFs) by 2025 in France. It also estimates medical expenditure savings because of the reduction of NCD burden.

Study design:
A microsimulation model is used to predict the future health and economic outcomes in France.

Methods:
A ‘RF targets’ scenario, assuming the achievement of the six targets on RFs by 2025, is compared to a counterfactual scenario with respect to disability-adjusted life years and healthcare costs differences.

Results:
The achievement of the RFs targets by 2025 would save about 25,300 (and 75,500) life years in good health in the population aged 25–64 (respectively 65+) years on average every year and would help to reduce healthcare costs by about €660 million on average per year, which represents 0.35% of the current annual healthcare spending in France. Such a reduction in RFs (net of the natural decreasing trend in mortality) would contribute to achieving about half of the 2030 NCD premature mortality target in France.

Conclusions:
The achievement of the RF targets would lead France to save life years and life years in good health in both working-age and retired people and would modestly reduce healthcare expenditures. To achieve RFs targets and to curb the growing burden of NCDs, France has to strengthen existing and implement new policy interventions.

Comportements et pratiques des médecins : exercer dans les zones les moins dotées, cela fait-il une différence ?Journal articleJulien Silhol, Bruno Ventelou, Anna Zaytseva and Claire Marbot, Revue francaise des affaires sociales, Issue 2, pp. 213-249, 2019

[FR]
Selon les projections récentes, les effectifs de médecins libéraux diminueront de 30 % d’ici à 2027 et la densité standardisée diminuerait jusqu’en 2023, créant des poches de sous-densité relativement nombreuses sur le territoire français métropolitain. L’article s’intéresse aux ajustements que les médecins généralistes de ville mettent en œuvre lorsque, sur leur territoire, ils sont d’ores et déjà confrontés à cette raréfaction. Les données utilisées sont celles du troisième panel des médecins généralistes enrichies d’indicateurs fournis par la CNAMTS. Nous nous sommes appuyés sur l’indicateur d’accessibilité potentielle localisé, développé par l’IRDES et la DREES, pour définir les zones les moins dotées en généralistes. En comparant les comportements des généralistes exerçant dans les zones les moins dotées à leurs homologues des zones mieux dotées, il est apparu d’abord que le planning d’activité du médecin tend à s’intensifier plutôt qu’à s’allonger. Nos données semblent en effet montrer que les rythmes de consultation dans les zones les moins dotées sont plus élevés, alors que le temps de travail global des généralistes s’avère quant à lui peu réactif à la densité en médecins alentour. On note aussi quelques différences statistiquement significatives sur les pratiques médicales : usage accru de certains médicaments, moins de renvoi vers des soins paramédicaux, suivis gynécologique probablement un peu moins réguliers, etc. Cependant, il semble que les différences ne sont pas statistiquement significatives pour les indicateurs de qualité des pratiques rattachés au dispositif de rémunération sur objectifs de santé publique (ROSP).
[EN]
According to recent projections, the number of private practice physicians will decrease by 30 % by 2027 and the standardised density will continue to decline up to 2023, thus creating territorial inequalities in physicians’ distribution in mainland France. This article focuses on the adaptations that private general practitioners (GPs) make when they already practice in underserved areas. The data used are those of the third panel of general practitioners matched with indicators provided by the Social Security (CNAMTS). We used the local potential accessibility indicator developed by IRDES and DREES to define the underserved areas for general practitioners. Our results show that GPs’ consultation rhythm is higher in underserved areas, while the overall working-time is not very responsive to the local medical density. We also find some statistically significant differences in practices : more frequent prescription of certain drugs, less referrals to paramedical care, probably less regular gynaecological follow-up, for GPs practicing in underserved areas compared to their counterparts in better-served areas. However, it appears that there are no significant differences regarding the indicators of Rémuneration sur objectifs de santé publique (ROSP) [French supplementary payment-for-performance] program, which could allow a first assessment of the quality of care.

39th French Health Economists Days : IntroductionJournal articleCarine Franc, Alain Paraponaris and Bruno Ventelou, Revue d'économie politique, Volume 129, Issue 4, pp. 441-445, 2019

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Epidemiological Transition and the Wealth of Nations: the Case of HIV/AIDS in a Microsimulation ModelJournal articleYves Arrighi and Bruno Ventelou, Revue d'économie politique, Volume 129, Issue 4, pp. 591-618, 2019

This paper aims at quantifying the effect of healthcare programs on economic outcomes in the context of developing countries experiencing epidemiological transitions. It is widely accepted in the literature that treatment programs result in production gains among ill-health workers. However, these programs have the additional effect of modifying both the size and the composition of the working population by increasing the proportion of chronically-ill individuals. First, we define the theoretical conditions under which this macro-epidemiological phenomenon outweighs the positive effect of an increase in production. Second, we decompose the economic consequences of access to antiretroviral treatments against HIV in three sub-Saharan African countries. Forecasts of an individual’s health status, depending on whether he or she has access to medication, are generated using a microsimulation model. We use the model to generate a counterfactual (as if the adverse epidemiological effect did not exist), which allows decomposing the total impact of the HIV-medicines program into two different effects: positive and negative. We find that the positive effect of treatment procurement outweighs the negative epidemiological effect. Of course, this approach is only an indicator of economic performance and should in no way constitute a decision-making criterion about the ethical necessity of access to health care.