Mathilde Esposito

2024-26

Demographic Winter, Economic Structure and Productivity in Japan

Gilles Dufrénot, Mathilde Esposito, Eva Moreno-Galbis

Résumé Low fertility rates, mortality outstripping the birth rate and population contraction characterize a new demographic transition (the so-called "fifth stage"). This paper seeks to evaluate how this phenomenon has impacted the Japanese economic structure and overall productivity. We test two key mechanisms that have been at play since the mid-2000s: i) a growing complementarity between goods and services consumption, and ii) the substitution of older workers engaged in routine tasks with technological capital. According to Autor and Dorn's (2013) model, this should promote the concentration of low-skilled workers in the service sector, and aggravate productivity gaps between industry and services. Using stochastic frontier models and EU-KLEMS data, we compute industry-by-industry TFP growth frontiers in order to check if theoretical predictions match with Japanese reality.

Mots clés Demographic transition, Productivity, Technological change, Economic structure, Japan

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2024-25

Workforce Aging and Potential Output Growth

Mathilde Esposito

Résumé In the literature on secular stagnation, demographic aging is widely blamed for lowering the IS curve of aggregate demand and therefore the natural interest rate. However, very little is said about the impact of workforce aging on long-term aggregate supply, or so-called potential GDP. To fill this gap, this study delves into the effects of workforce aging on two key components of the remarkably sluggish potential GDP growth of developed countries: hours worked and labour productivity. First, using a novel macro-accounting decomposition of EU-KLEMS data, we find that old-labour input has the highest contribution to growth, through both increased hours worked and shifts in labour composition in the EU, US and Japan. Second, we use panel stochastic frontier models highlighting that, however, old workers have an adverse effect on labour productivity growth frontier—though increasing technical efficiency, i.e., reducing the distance to this frontier.

Mots clés Labour Productivity, EU-KLEMS, Stochastic frontier analysis, Labour Input, Potential growth, Demographic Aging

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2021-38

Linking Covid-19 epidemic and emerging market OAS: Evidence using dynamic copulas and Pareto distributions

Imdade Chitou, Gilles Dufrénot, Julien Esposito

Résumé This paper investigates the dependence of the Option-Adjusted Spread (OAS) for several ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Indexes to the outbreaks of the Covid-19 viral pandemics between March 1, 2020, and April 30, 2021. We investigate whether the number of new cases, the reproduction rate, death rate and stringency policies have resulted in an increase/decrease in the spreads. We study the bivariate distributions of epidemiological indicators and spreads to investigate their concordance using dynamic copula analysis and estimate the Kendall rankcorrelation coefficient. We also investigate the effect of the epidemiological variables on the extreme values of the spreads by fitting a tail index derived from a Pareto type I distribution. We highlight the existence of correlations, robust to the type of copulas used (Clayton or Gumbel). Moreover, we show that the epidemiological variables explain well the extreme values of the spreads.

Mots clés COVID-19, Corporate spreads, Pandemics, Emerging economies

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