Guglielmo Maria Caporale

Interdisciplinary seminars
finance seminar

Guglielmo Maria Caporale

Brunel University London
Exchange rates and macro news in emerging markets
Joint with
Fabio Spagnolo, Nicola Spagnolo
Venue

Château Lafarge

Château Lafarge - Salle de séminaires
Château Lafarge
Route des Milles
13290 Les Milles
Date(s)
Tuesday, April 25 2017| 2:30pm
Contact(s)

Eric Girardin: eric.girardin[at]univ-amu.fr
Christelle Lecourt: christelle.lecourt[at]univ-amu.fr
Jean-François Carpantier: jean-francois.carpantier[at]univ-amu.fr

Abstract

This paper uses a VAR-GARCH(1,1) model to analyse mean and volatility spillovers between macro news (in the form of newspaper headlines) and the exchange rates vis-avis both the US dollar and the euro of the currencies of a group of emerging countries including the Czech Republic, Hungary, Indonesia, Korea, Mexico, Poland, South Africa, Thailand and Turkey over the period 02/1/2003-23/9/2014. The results suggest limited dynamic linkages between the first moments compared to the second moments, causalityin-variance being found in a number of cases. The conditional correlations also provide evidence of co-movement. Finally, the recent global financial crisis appears to have had a significant impact.