Michael Devereux

Thematic seminars
Macro and labor market seminar

Michael Devereux

University of British Columbia
Foreign Reserves Management and Original Sin
Joint with
Steve Pak Yeung Wu
Venue

IBD Salle 15

Îlot Bernard du Bois - Salle 15

AMU - AMSE
5-9 boulevard Maurice Bourdet
13001 Marseille

Date(s)
Friday, June 14 2024| 12:30pm to 1:30pm
Contact(s)

Marco Fongoni: marco.fongoni[at]univ-amu.fr
Francesco Gaudio: francesco-saverio.gaudio[at]univ-amu.fr

Abstract

Foreign reserves management changes the risk profile of a currency, there- fore influencing the pricing of sovereign debt, and the sovereign debt cur- rency portfolio. Empirically, inflation-targeters in emerging countries with higher foreign reserves feature an “original sin” dissipation: high local cur- rency share in the sovereign debt portfolio. We propose a quantitative model of optimal reserves management and sovereign currency portfolios. The op- timal reserves policy leans against the global wind so the exchange rate de- preciates less in global bad times, resulting in a lower premium charged by global investors and more local currency sovereign debt. We confirm these features empirically and via data-simulated regressions.