Eric Girardin: eric.girardin[at]univ-amu.fr
Real estate is an important driver of the Chinese economy, which itself is vital for global growth. However, data limitations make it challenging to evaluate competing claims about the state of Chinese housing markets. We bring new Chinese housing market data and analysis to the study of supply and demand conditions across 35 major cities. We show that there is great heterogeneity in conditions across Chinese cities. The big-4 cities look undersupplied, even amidst very high price growth over the past decade; in contrast, 10-15 major markets spread around the interior of the country look to be substantially oversupplied. It is in those places that one should expect price weakness if demand-side growth falters.